Ruchira Papers

Q3 FY18 Earnings Call Analysis

Paper, Forest & Jute Products

Full Stock Analysis
revenue: Category 3margin: Category 2orderbook: No informationfundraise: No informationcapex: Yes
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fundraise

Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?

- No specific decision on sources of funds for the proposed Greenfield expansion has been finalized yet. - The company is waiting to obtain all necessary clearances, including environmental clearance expected by the end of the financial year. - Management emphasized keeping an open mind regarding fundraising options and will finalize plans once clearances are in place. - Vipin Gupta mentioned that they are working on the internal IRR calculations for the expansion and will provide exact figures in the next quarter con-call. - No announcement or indication of imminent debt or equity fundraising was made as of this call (November 2018).
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capex

Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?

- Ruchira Papers is planning a Greenfield expansion project for manufacturing Writing and Printing Paper with a capacity of 1,00,000 TPA at Chamkaur Sahib, Punjab. - They have acquired 109.02 acres of land and the Punjab government is finalizing the sale of an additional 75 acres expected to be registered by mid-December. - Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) clearance is expected by mid of Q4 FY19 or by the end of the financial year. - Machinery purchase and fund-raising plans for this project will be finalized after obtaining clearances. - The company is currently evaluating the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) for the Greenfield expansion before deciding source of funds, to be shared in next quarter con-call. - Ongoing investment focus includes chemical recovery, effluent treatment, and power co-generation plants.
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revenue

Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?

- Ruchira Papers targets continued growth in production for FY19, aiming for approximately 1,33,000 MT for the full year. - For H1FY19, production was 62,137 MT; higher production expected in H2FY19 to meet guidance for 55,000 tons Writing & Printing paper and 78,000 tons Kraft paper. - Demand for writing and printing paper is seasonally stronger post-Diwali, indicating better sales in second half. - NSR (Net Sales Realization) for Writing and Printing paper is improving, with prices moving from Rs. 58,970/PMT in Q2FY19 to Rs. 64,000/PMT currently, expected to sustain and possibly improve further. - Kraft paper prices are stable around Rs. 27,000/PMT. - Shift towards value-added Kraft products (targeting 15-20% production share) is gradual but expected to grow, potentially increasing NSR. - Domestic demand is robust, with limited competition from imports owing to logistics and pricing dynamics. - Greenfield expansion of 100,000 TPA writing and printing paper plant planned, subject to clearances, which will boost future capacity and growth.
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margin

Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?

- The company expects better realizations and margin improvement in coming quarters, especially post-Diwali, driven by increased demand for writing & printing (W&P) paper. - October NSR for W&P paper has risen to Rs. 61,480/MT, with current bookings at Rs. 64,000/MT, indicating a positive pricing trend. - Raw material cost pressures, notably softwood pulp and fuel, stabilized after Q2 FY19, supporting margin recovery. - EBITDA margins for FY19 are projected to be in the 18.5% to 19% range, an improvement over current levels. - Production is expected to increase in H2 FY19, with a target total of 1,33,000 MT for the year. - Gradual shift (~15% ongoing) toward value-added Kraft products should positively impact profitability over time. - The company remains confident in achieving its earlier guidance on top-line and EBITDA margins for FY19.
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orderbook

Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?

- Current order booking for Writing & Printing Paper (WPP) is at Rs. 64,000 per metric ton. - For October 2018, the NSR (Net Sales Realization) for WPP was Rs. 61,480 per metric ton. - Kraft Paper orders are being booked around Rs. 27,000 per metric ton. - The company is optimistic that these rates (especially for WPP) will sustain and improve further with the upcoming season. - The improved NSR is expected to positively impact EBITDA margins. - No specific data on the volume or value of pending orders was mentioned.