Ruchira Papers

Q3 FY19 Earnings Call Analysis

Paper, Forest & Jute Products

Full Stock Analysis
fundraise: Yescapex: Yesrevenue: Category 4margin: Category 2orderbook: No information
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capex

Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?

- Current CAPEX of Rs. 45 crores planned in two phases, focusing on upgradation and modification of the Writing & Printing Paper unit (first phase) and Kraft Paper unit (second phase, FY21). - Investments include size press installation, turbine efficiency and capacity enhancement, recovery unit improvements, and better paper quality; mainly aimed at margin and efficiency improvements, not production capacity increase. - Earlier planned Rs. 70 crores CAPEX for cup stock production related to expected plastic ban is on hold until government enforces single-use plastic ban. - CAPEX funding expected to be 1:1 ratio of debt and internal accruals, with maximum debt around Rs. 20 crores. - Larger scale expansion or new CAPEX depends on market recovery and resolution of land acquisition issues; no immediate big investment planned. - Company remains cautious given current volatile demand and price conditions before pursuing major strategic investments.
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revenue

Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?

- The company expects an improvement in business from December onwards, coinciding with the seasonal demand from schools and colleges and government tenders. - They are hopeful that the paper prices, especially for writing and printing paper, will appreciate starting December. - Production growth is moderate, with first half production at 69,406 MT vs. 62,137 MT last year; full-year targets remain unchanged. - Planned CAPEX of Rs. 45 crores in the first phase aims at improving efficiency and quality, not volume expansion; potential margin improvements anticipated. - Larger CAPEX and capacity expansions are on hold until market conditions improve. - Value-added products (around 30% of writing & printing segment) expected to maintain their current mix, contributing slightly higher realizations. - Market demand remains subdued but recovery is expected with government actions on plastic bans affecting product lines like cup stocks and paper bags.
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margin

Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?

- The company expects margin improvement from the ongoing ₹45 crore CAPEX phase 1, mainly through efficiency gains (size press, turbine and recovery unit upgrades), not capacity expansion. - Value-added product share in writing and printing paper remains steady at ~30%, providing slightly better realization (₹1500/tonne extra), supporting margins. - Price appreciation in writing and printing paper is expected from December due to seasonal demand (schools/colleges) and government tenders, potentially improving NSR. - Raw material costs may soften with the arrival of bagasse, though there is uncertainty around overall raw material price trends. - Larger CAPEX for diversification (e.g., cup stocks) is on hold awaiting government action on single-use plastic ban, so growth from new product lines is deferred. - No specific quantified guidance on EPS or absolute profit growth; management cautiously optimistic on margin improvement and top-line growth from H2 FY20 onward.
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orderbook

Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?

- The company indicates that some government tenders are in the pipeline but have been delayed. - Several tenders, including those from NCERT, MP government, and Rajasthan government, are at final stages. - Arrival of these tenders is expected to improve Kraft paper prices and market conditions starting next month (December 2019). - The company is hopeful of a good season ahead with school and college demand, anticipating price appreciation from December. - Overall, the management expects the market and order inflow to improve starting December 2019, marking the beginning of a positive phase.
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fundraise

Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?

- Ruchira Papers Limited plans a CAPEX of Rs. 45 crores in the first phase, primarily funded through a 1:1 debt to internal accrual ratio. - Expected debt component for this CAPEX is around Rs. 20 crores. - Management has no immediate plans for large-scale CAPEX beyond this phase; any further big investments will depend on market improvements. - No mention of new equity fundraising during this period. - The company is cautious about market conditions before undertaking further expansions or raising additional funds.