Shree CementQ3 FY23

Shree Cement Q3 FY23 Earnings Call Analysis

Revenue, margin, capex, fundraise and order book outlook from management commentary.

Price: 22,570P/E: 50.0Market Cap: ₹81.4K CrSector: Cement & Cement Products

Management growth scorecard

Revenue

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Margin

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Fundraise

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Order

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Capex

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0 of 0 growth signals are positive — mixed outlook.

Full analysis

Revenue guidance

  • Shree Cement targets growth in cement capacity from 55 million tons to 80 million tons by 2030, indicating a planned volume expansion.
  • The company prefers organic growth to reach the 80 million tons target and will maintain its current growth pace regardless of competitors' faster expansions.
  • Demand for cement in India is expected to grow at 6-8% annually, supported by infrastructure allocations such as INR 10 lakh crores in the Union Budget.
  • Volumes grew by 23% year-on-year in the recent quarter, with sequential volume growth of 8%.
  • Trade sales currently account for around 78%-80%, a trend expected to continue.
  • Premium product sales constitute about 7%, with plans to increase this to 15% over the next 3-4 quarters through marketing and branding efforts.
  • Price realizations increased by about 2% year-on-year, aiding revenue growth alongside volume expansion.

See what Shree Cement management said on margin guidance — free account, 30 seconds.

Fundraise plans

  • The company has raised around INR 2,500 crores just before the pandemic.
  • Post-pandemic, the capital expenditure program was delayed for 2 years due to demand uncertainty.
  • Currently, a very aggressive capex program is underway to reach 80 million tons capacity by 2030.
  • For the next year, the expected total capex is INR 3,300 to INR 3,500 crores.
  • As of December 31, 2022, the company's investment size is INR 8,300 crores (corrected from gross debt).
  • The company currently holds net cash of INR 5,700 crores (not net debt).
  • No explicit mention of new fundraising through debt or equity in the immediate future.
  • Most of the cash raised earlier is expected to be utilized toward the capex program.
  • If surplus cash remains after 2-3 years, the company may consider special dividends, indicating no immediate plans to raise funds.

See what Shree Cement management said on order book — free account, 30 seconds.

Capex plans

  • The company has an aggressive capital expenditure (capex) program targeting 80 million tons capacity by 2030, with a focus on organic growth.
  • In the first 9 months of the current fiscal year, about INR 2,200 crores were spent, with an additional INR 700-800 crores expected in the last quarter, totaling around INR 2,900 crores.
  • For the next year, capex is anticipated to be INR 3,300 to INR 3,500 crores.
  • Ongoing projects:
  • - 3 million ton unit in Purulia, West Bengal, near completion (expected by June quarter).
  • - Integrated cement unit at Nawalgarh, Rajasthan, expected by Q3 FY '24-'25 (advanced by one quarter).
  • - Integrated cement unit of 3 million tons in Guntur, Andhra Pradesh, expected by Q2 FY '24-'25 (advanced by one quarter).
  • Investments also include setting up railway sidings across plants to improve logistics and significant investments in digital and IT systems (CRM, SAP) to modernize operations.
  • Renewable energy expansion is planned with 42 megawatts of solar power to be added soon after adding 84 MW in the current year.

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Margin guidance

  • Guidance on full-year pricing and margins is difficult due to volatility in cement and fuel prices; exact EBITDA per tonne targets (e.g., INR 1,200-1,500) remain uncertain and dependent on market conditions.
  • Sequential quarterly performance shows improvement; Q3 FY23 EBITDA per ton improved to INR 881 from INR 701 in previous quarter, indicating operational recovery.
  • The company targets capacity growth to 80 million tons by 2030 at a steady, organic pace, signaling a long-term volume growth strategy.
  • Cost reduction initiatives underway include increasing use of low-cost agricultural waste to raise Thermal Substitution Rate (TSR) from 3% to 15% in 12 months, rail siding investments to reduce freight costs, and renewable energy additions.
  • Strong focus on brand building and premium product sales (currently 7%, aiming for 15% in next 3-4 quarters) may enhance margin profile.
  • Capital expenditure remains aggressive (INR 3,300-3,500 crore next year) supporting growth, funded mainly from internal accruals.
  • Dividend expected to remain stable without special payouts in near term due to capex focus.

Order book

The transcript provided from Shree Cement Limited's Q3 FY23 earnings call does not include any information regarding the company's current or expected order book or pending orders. The discussion primarily focuses on: - Production capacity and expansion plans (targeting 80 million tons by 2030). - Industry demand and pricing outlook. - Financial performance and realizations. - Capital expenditure plans and cash allocation. - Sustainability initiatives and technological investments. No specific details on order books or pending orders are mentioned in the transcript.

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