Steel Authority of India Ltd

Q2 FY23 Earnings Call Analysis

Ferrous Metals

Full Stock Analysis
fundraise: No informationcapex: Yesrevenue: Category 3margin: Category 3orderbook: No information
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fundraise

Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?

- No explicit mention of plans for new fundraising through equity was made during the call. - Debt levels increased to INR 29,414 crores due to working capital buildup mainly from coal prices. - Management expects borrowings to reduce by around INR 4,000 crores in the medium term, targeting borrowings to come down to INR 22,000-22,500 crores by year-end. - The reduction in debt depends on coal costs and net sales realization (NSR) during the coming quarters. - No direct statement about raising fresh debt or equity; focus seems on deleveraging via cash flow management. - Capital expenditure plans remain active with INR 6,800 crores capex targeted for the year, but financed through existing means rather than new fund raising.
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capex

Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?

- Current year capex target is INR 6,800 crores. - Maintenance capex is around INR 1,500-2,000 crores; remaining is mostly for debottlenecking and includes JV share. - Debottlenecking projects targeting 3-3.5 million tonnes capacity increase; timeline around 3 to 3.5 years. - Expansion plans for 4 major plants by 2031-32: - IISCO Steel Plant: 4.5 million tonnes capacity increase, tendering stage. - Bokaro Plant: 4 million tonnes plant (brownfield expansion) plus debottlenecking. - Rourkela Steel Plant: 2 million tonnes plant, tendering stage. - Additional potential pellet plants at Durgapur or Bokaro if pellet shortage arises. - Tasra mine approved to add 1.6-1.7 million tonnes of indigenous coking coal through an MDO. - Capex for expansion expected to ramp up after order placement; peak capex in coming years could be around INR 8,000-10,000 crores. - Focus on internal beneficiation and pellet plants for raw material integration.
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revenue

Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?

- SAIL has registered strong volume growth in Q1 FY24 with crude steel production up 7% and sales volume up 23% over the previous year. - Domestic demand remains robust with a 25% increase in domestic sales volume. - The company targets a total production of 19 million tonnes for the current financial year. - Expansion plans are underway at four major plants to increase capacity by 15 million tonnes by FY31-32. - Debottlenecking projects aim to add 3-3.5 million tonnes capacity over 3-3.5 years. - Maintenance capex around INR 1,500-2,000 crores annually will continue; growth capex includes large projects starting order placement by end FY23. - Optimism on improving margins as coking coal prices stabilize and domestic consumption outlook improves. - NSR (Net Sales Realization) expected to stabilize and improve from Q2 onwards, aiding revenue growth.
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margin

Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?

- SAIL expects improved operational efficiency and positive market conditions in coming quarters, suggesting optimism for future profits. - EBITDA per tonne is expected to expand reasonably, supported by lower coking coal prices and stabilized steel prices. - Production growth targets include a 19 million tonnes steel production for FY24 with expansion projects planned to increase capacity by 3 to 3.5 million tonnes through debottlenecking over 3 to 3.5 years. - Capital expenditure of INR6,800 crores for FY24, including around INR1,500-2,000 crores for maintenance and the rest for debottlenecking and expansion. - Deleveraging is planned, targeting a reduction of borrowings by around INR4,000 crores to around INR22,000-22,500 crores. - NSR (net sales realization) is expected to stabilize with potential improvement in Q3-Q4 due to demand revival and stabilized coal costs. - Loss-making units like Salem Steel Plant and VISL are currently incurring losses, impacting overall profitability. - Overall, earnings growth depends on raw material costs, pricing environment, and execution of expansion plans.
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orderbook

Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?

- Several expansion and debottlenecking projects at plants like IISCO Steel Plant, Bokaro, Durgapur, and Rourkela have received in-principle or board-level approval. - Orders for capacity increase projects, including blast furnace expansions at Durgapur and Bokaro, and standard batteries at other plants, are under tendering. - Expected order placement for these projects is by the end of 2023 to initiate cash outflows starting next year. - Pellet plant orders have been placed for a 1 million tonnes per annum plant at July; MDO orders for a 4 million tonnes pellet plant at Gua are expected by mid-2024. - Additional pellet plants are being planned/tendered at Rourkela, IISCO, Durgapur, and Bokaro. - The capex for debottlenecking 3-3.5 million tonnes is planned over 3-3.5 years, with phased commissioning. - Overall, multiple orders are pending placement to enable expansions totaling about 15 million tonnes by 2031-32.