Sterlite Technologies Ltd
Q3 FY23 Earnings Call Analysis
Telecom - Equipment & Accessories
revenue: Category 5margin: Category 3orderbook: No informationfundraise: No informationcapex: Yes
💰fundraise
Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?
- The company has approval for a rights issue raising up to Rs.1000 crores but there is no immediate plan; they continue to evaluate strategic needs and market conditions before deciding.
- Focus is on debt reduction with an internal target to reduce net debt by Rs.200-250 crores in FY24.
- Capex for FY24 has been reduced from Rs.350-400 crores to about Rs.250 crores to manage cash efficiently.
- No specific comments on new debt raising at this stage; monitoring market and demand conditions to decide.
- The demerger of the Global Service business will include transferring the specific debt attributable to that business upon requisite approvals, but no additional debt raising disclosed.
🏗️capex
Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?
- The capex cycle has been largely completed with the operationalization of the US facility.
- The capex target for FY24 has been reduced from Rs. 350-400 crores to Rs. 250 crores.
- The reduction in capex is primarily due to deferral of phase II capacity-building investments at the US plant, waiting for demand to pick up.
- Current capital work in progress stands at Rs. 180 crores, mainly related to the US facility; capitalization will occur once lines are commissioned.
- Future capex focus will be minimal, limited to maintenance and no major new capacity additions beyond the US plant.
- Capital allocation priority going forward is towards debt reduction rather than aggressive capex.
- The company is also investing around Rs. 120 crores in its digital business in FY24, targeting EBITDA breakeven by Q4 FY24.
📊revenue
Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?
- Revenue is expected to decline in FY24 due to inventory correction in North America and market challenges.
- Growth in North America market is likely to resume from Q1 FY25 onwards with ramp-up of US plant and demand recovery.
- Optical fiber cable (OFC) market share is stable and expected to grow from the second half of FY24 onwards.
- Fiber rollout in India shows strong progress with government-backed projects like BharatNet Phase 3 (Rs.1.39 lakh crore).
- Optical connectivity attach rates increased to 13% from 10% quarter-on-quarter; commercialization of new products will further improve this.
- Digital business growing rapidly with a strong order book (~Rs.750-780 crores), aiming for EBITDA breakeven by Q4 FY24.
- Global services business executing selectively with improving profitability.
- Medium-term demand for optical fiber cable volumes expected to grow to 623 million fiber kilometers by 2027 from 535 million in 2022.
- Market CAGR estimates: North America ~10.1%, Europe ~4.7%, India ~9.5% between 2023-2028.
📈margin
Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?
- Revenue is expected to decline in FY24 due to inventory correction in North America, with recovery anticipated from Q1 FY25 onwards.
- EBITDA margins have improved, with H1 FY24 EBITDA margin at 20.8% for the optical business and overall margin expansion of 230 bps Y-o-Y.
- STL Digital aims to achieve EBITDA breakeven by Q4 FY24, with revenue growing and EBITDA losses trending downwards.
- Capex cycle is complete with US facility operationalized; focus will be on improving factory utilization and reducing debt.
- Net debt reduction target is Rs. 200-250 crores for FY24, supporting financial health and profitability.
- Growth is expected from increasing optical connectivity attach rates (improved from 10% to 13%) and market share expansion in India, EMEA, and APAC.
- Global services are focusing on select projects to improve profitability with an 81% increase in H1 FY24 EBITDA.
- Long-term growth driven by government projects like BharatNet Phase III and expanding 5G/data center markets.
📋orderbook
Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?
- The open order book at the end of Q2 FY24 is Rs. 10,516 crores.
- The order book is well diversified across customer segments and businesses.
- The digital business has a healthy order book close to Rs. 750 crores.
- Discussions and progress are ongoing for the BharatNet Phase III project valued at around Rs. 1.4 lakh crores, with execution over 2.5-3 years and maintenance for 7 years.
- The T-Fiber project in the Global Services business is progressing with working capital employed of about Rs. 700 crores, though execution is complex and milestone-based.
- Ongoing demand recovery expected in North America from Q1 FY25, which should support new orders.
- Management is focused on capturing market share in key regions like North America, Europe, and India to fill volume gaps.
