Subex Ltd
Q1 FY26 Earnings Call Analysis
IT - Software
fundraise: Yescapex: Yesrevenue: Category 3margin: Category 3orderbook: Yes
🏗️capex
Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?
- Subex has about INR 50 crores of cash on the balance sheet after setting aside working capital for a six-month runway.
- The company plans to generate more cash through the year.
- There is an active discussion with the board about pursuing potential tuck-in acquisitions in the current year.
- No immediate plans to increase or dilute investment in OnGrid as the investment is performing well.
- Preference is to reinvest capital back into Subex’s own portfolio rather than external investments, showing higher confidence in internal growth opportunities.
- The company aims to use its strengthened balance sheet to invest with conviction and pursue growth opportunities from a position of strength, moving away from defensive management.
💰fundraise
Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?
- No immediate need for raising funds through debt or equity.
- The company currently has sufficient cash on the balance sheet (around INR 50 crores after reserving for working capital).
- They are generating cash through the year and are focusing on internal investments.
- There is openness to potential tuck-in acquisitions this year, discussions active with the board.
- No plans to raise money from OnGrid investment as it is doing well.
- Overall, the focus is on reinvesting in their own portfolio rather than seeking external capital.
📊revenue
Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?
- Subex is entering FY27 with a strong backlog and robust pipeline, expecting revenue growth as implementation cycles for contracts won last year complete, leading to increased subscription revenues.
- Management is bullish on FY27, expecting to beat prior performance benchmarks and achieve accelerated growth.
- Revenue showed sequential growth of around 3% in Q4FY26, with expectations of faster revenue growth in upcoming quarters as order conversions improve.
- The company targets reaching INR 100 crores revenue per quarter in the near future.
- Growth engines include traditional telecom services, new AI-powered products replacing managed services teams, addressing new fraud vectors, and expanding into telco adjacencies like mobile money fraud and IoT.
- Subex aims for at least 10% growth driven by these diversified growth levers and expanding markets.
- Despite geopolitical risks, especially in the Gulf region, Subex is mitigating impact by offshoring delivery and focusing on diverse geographies such as APAC, Europe, Americas, and Africa.
📈margin
Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?
- Subex's CEO Nisha Dutt emphasized FY27 as the year focused on growth, expressing a bullish outlook based on strong order backlog and pipeline.
- Revenue growth is expected as contracts won last year move through implementation to subscription revenue, leading to upticks in future quarters.
- Operational discipline over three years has built a platform to accelerate growth with consistency in positive EBITDA and PAT.
- Margins might improve due to cost optimization, utilizing AI to reduce engineering and operational costs, benefiting EBITDA.
- The company aims to achieve quarterly revenue of INR 100 crores, signaling targets for significant growth.
- Management is cautiously optimistic but does not provide forward-looking numeric guidance due to competitive and contractual confidentiality.
- Overall, the foundation is set for accelerating profits and EPS growth, driven by new products, geographic expansion, and leveraging AI-based efficiencies.
📋orderbook
Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?
- The company entered the year with a strong backlog and a strong pipeline of orders.
- Order Intake (OIN) last year was 35% higher than any other year, indicating strong momentum.
- Most contracts won last year are multi-year contracts, providing annuity revenue over future years.
- The implementation phase of many contracts started last year is underway; subscription revenues will increase as implementations conclude.
- Typical bill sizes range from INR 1 to 1.5 crore per quarter; deals above INR 2-3 crore are considered "blockbuster" and infrequent.
- Some delays and contracting issues are seen, especially in the Middle East, due to geopolitical factors, but overall demand remains strong.
- The company expects revenue to start growing as implementations complete during the year, improving order conversion progressively.
