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Subex LtdQ3 FY23

Subex Ltd Q3 FY23 Earnings Call Analysis

Revenue, margin, capex, fundraise and order book outlook from management commentary.

Price: 10.5P/E: 18.4Market Cap: ₹590 CrSector: IT - Software

Management growth scorecard

Revenue

Category 4

Margin

Category 3

Fundraise

N/A

Order

N/A

Capex

N/A

0 of 2 growth signals are positive — mixed outlook.

Full analysis

Revenue guidance

Category 4
  • The company is seeing growth across all three product fronts: Sectrio, IDcentral (including BharatID app), and HyperSense, indicating a broad portfolio expansion rather than growth concentrated in one area.
  • Efforts are focused on doubling down on the Telco segment while exploring adjacencies like Fintech, wallets, and other areas for future growth.
  • Historically, the company experiences better business in the second half of the financial year (Q3 and Q4), suggesting improved revenue and margins in these quarters.
  • The company is investing actively in AI and upgrading its technology stack to address competition and evolving tech challenges, which should support top-line growth.
  • New client wins in network asset management and security indicate emerging green shoots and potential new revenue streams.
  • The company is working on increasing efficiency and optimizing sales by targeting regions and customers more strategically, which is expected to bolster sales.
  • Recurring revenue growth is tied to completion of long-duration projects and should improve progressively.

Margin guidance

Category 3
  • Management expects real profits to materialize within one year from the last con call, indicating optimism for profitability in the near term (Page 21).
  • Focus is on improving topline growth as a critical factor for company growth; cost optimization is ongoing but insufficient without revenue growth (Pages 8, 9).
  • Q3 and Q4 historically perform better than H1, suggesting possible seasonal uptick in revenues and margins (Page 12).
  • New client wins in network asset management and security segments indicate green shoots for growth, though these currently contribute a smaller portion of revenue (Page 10).
  • Recurring revenue is expected to improve gradually as long-duration projects complete and subscriptions start (Page 13).
  • Management is committed to delivering growth with positive momentum seen in recent quarters, aiming for better future results (Pages 4, 15).
  • Continued investment in technology upgrades, partnerships, and adjacencies may further support top-line growth and margin improvements (Pages 16, 17).

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Fundraise plans

  • There is no explicit mention of any current or future fundraising through debt or equity in the provided transcript.
  • The company is focused on improving top-line growth and optimizing costs but has not indicated plans for raising funds via equity or debt.
  • Discussions mainly revolve around business transformation, sales improvements, and operational efficiencies.
  • When probed about financial aspects, the management emphasizes cost control and growth strategies without mentioning capital raising.
  • If any fundraise plans arise, the management intends to inform investors accordingly in due course.

Order book

  • Subex has stopped reporting traditional order backlog figures as they found the multi-year backlog numbers confusing for investors.
  • Instead, they now report a Monthly Recurring Revenue (MRR) figure.
  • As per the latest call, apart from the MRR, there is one-time revenue yet to be executed amounting to approximately $13 million to $14 million.
  • This one-time revenue represents pending orders for execution over about a 12-month horizon.
  • The MRR is indicative of recurring revenue expected from ongoing contracts after project implementation phases complete.

Capex plans

  • Subex is investigating adjacencies beyond telecom, including some work in Fintech such as Telco wallets, indicating potential future strategic investments in these areas.
  • The company is committed to enhancing its product range and offerings through active partnerships to optimize spending and accelerate market entry.
  • Significant investments are being made to upgrade the technology stack, especially in AI and GenAI solutions tailored for telecom, demonstrated by a production-ready GenAI solution launched with Google.
  • There is no explicit mention of current or planned large-scale capital expenditure; instead, strategic investments appear focused on partnerships, R&D, and technology upgrades to drive growth and efficiency.

How does Subex Ltd rank vs peers in IT - Software?

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1Subex Ltd
Rev 4Mar 3

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