Subex Ltd
Q3 FY25 Earnings Call Analysis
IT - Software
capex: Norevenue: Category 3margin: Category 3orderbook: No informationfundraise: No
💰fundraise
Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?
- There is no specific mention of any current or immediate future fundraising through debt or equity in the call.
- Nisha Dutt mentioned the possibility of increasing stake in subsequent rounds if needed, indicating potential for future equity fundraising depending on circumstances.
- The company is focused on stabilizing its capital table but is not actively pursuing M&A or fundraising opportunities at this time.
- Sumit Kumar highlighted regulatory hurdles for buybacks due to negative retained earnings, reflecting financial constraints.
- The management's priority currently is reinvesting internal funds into business growth rather than raising external capital.
🏗️capex
Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?
- Current products are self-funded; no explicit mention of new external capital investment at the moment.
- Internal cash and funds are planned to be reinvested into existing businesses to drive next-level growth.
- New product developments are backed by internal IRR calculations to avoid cash burn from non-performing investments.
- Strategic investment example: Subex holds a 2.6% stake in Privasapien, a data privacy/AI company; no current plans to increase this stake.
- Focus remains on reinvesting internally identified opportunities rather than external investments.
- No active M&A pursuits currently, but efforts to stabilize the capital table may lead to future strategic moves.
- Product roadmap includes making all products GenAI native and lighter to reduce heavy implementation cycles.
📊revenue
Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?
- H1 FY26 was fairly good with a strong order book and profitability; momentum is expected to continue in H2, which usually performs slightly better than H1.
- Management aims to achieve INR 100 crore quarterly revenue, driven by a robust order book and faster deal conversions compared to previous years.
- Sales pipeline is actively managed with a target funnel of INR 180-200 million for the year, typically 4-5 times the order intake target.
- Approximately 20-30% of large multi-year orders convert into revenue within the first year, with the remainder spilling into future periods.
- Focus is on sustainable profitability and converting backlog into revenue rather than relying on one-time gains.
- Realistic revenue targets are always backed by a strong and diligently tracked sales funnel.
- Product enhancements include AI and GenAI native solutions aimed at lighter, faster deployments to unlock new industry segments.
📈margin
Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?
- H1 FY26 was fairly good with a strong order book and profitability momentum.
- H2 FY26 typically performs better than H1, and the company expects to continue this positive momentum.
- Management aims to sustain positive PAT going forward, avoiding reliance on one-time gains.
- Focus on reinvesting profits into business growth for the "next level" expansion.
- Product development is primarily self-funded, with emphasis on AI and GenAI-native products.
- Targets for revenue and order intake are backed by active pipelines and funnels monitored biweekly.
- The company plans to share detailed product roadmaps and growth areas during the upcoming Investor Day.
- There is cautious optimism for growth with ongoing deal conversions and some geographies picking up pace faster.
- No active M&A currently, but stabilization of the cap table is a priority.
Overall, Subex expects steady growth in earnings and profitability with improved pipeline conversion and strategic reinvestment.
📋orderbook
Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?
- The exact order book as of November 1 is not disclosed publicly due to competitive sensitivity.
- The company operates on a backlog basis, with a stronger order book this year compared to last year, reflecting an uptick in order intake.
- Order funnel is internally tracked between INR 180 million to INR 200 million, indicating a pipeline 4-5 times the targeted annual order intake.
- Large orders typically range from 4 to 5 years, with about 20-30% revenue realization in the current year and the rest spilling over.
- Renewal orders maintain annuity revenue but don't contribute to growth.
- Management aims to reach INR 100 crore quarterly revenue, supported by the robust funnel and backlog.
- The company maintains confidentiality around orders due to the duopoly market and competitive concerns.
- New order visibility and forecasts are provided mainly through deal disclosures rather than detailed funnel breakdowns.
