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Subros LtdQ3 FY24

Subros Ltd Q3 FY24 Earnings Call Analysis

Revenue, margin, capex, fundraise and order book outlook from management commentary.

Price: 825P/E: 29.0Market Cap: ₹4.9K CrSector: Industrial Products

Management growth scorecard

Revenue

Category 4

Margin

Category 3

Fundraise

Yes

Order

Yes

Capex

Yes

3 of 5 growth signals are positive.

Full analysis

Revenue guidance

Category 4
  • Exact revenue growth prediction is difficult due to market uncertainties.
  • Capacity expansion aligns with customer requirements, notably Maruti's ramp-up plan.
  • New capacities expected to be utilized 70%-80% within 1-2 years of project launch.
  • Company anticipates performing slightly better than overall industry growth.
  • Business segments like CV, truck, and last-mile connectivity trucks show promising growth.
  • New plant with additional 460,000-500,000 capacity planned, operational by April 2026.
  • Railways segment to see aggressive double-digit growth over next 2-3 years.
  • EV bus aircon penetration expected to improve within 6-8 months.
  • Challenges in assuming EV market penetration growth; cautious investment in electric compressor capacity.
  • Overall, FY'25 and FY'26 outlook is promising with focus on operational efficiencies and margin improvement.

Margin guidance

Category 3
  • Revenue growth prediction is challenging due to market uncertainties, but capacity expansion aligns with customer demand, especially Maruti's ramp-up.
  • Capacity utilization expected between 70%-80% within 1-2 years post new project launch.
  • Company expects to perform slightly better than the overall industry growth.
  • EBITDA margins have improved consistently over the last 8-10 quarters and have reached double-digit levels; efforts will continue to sustain and improve margins.
  • FY'25 and FY'26 outlook is promising considering current market conditions.
  • Profit after tax (PAT) grew 36% in Q2 FY25; EBITDA increased by 13%, with PBT up 16.8%.
  • Capacity expansion investment of Rs. 150 crores planned to support growth.
  • Focus on operational efficiencies and localization to improve profitability.
  • Growth expected from emerging segments like CV aircon, last-mile trucks, and railways over next 2-3 years.

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Fundraise plans

Yes
  • Subros Limited currently has no long-term debt and is managing its financing through internal accruals and working capital limits.
  • For the new greenfield project at Kharkhoda (capacity addition of ~460,000 to 500,000 units) with an investment of Rs. 150 crores:
  • - The funding mix is tentatively planned at 25% internal accruals and 75% bank borrowing.
  • - However, the final mix will be adjusted based on business situation and requirements.
  • No additional public mention of fundraising through equity or other means has been made in the latest call.
  • The company is watchful of market conditions and will adjust funding approach accordingly.

Order book

Yes
  • Current railway order booking is approximately Rs. 35 to 40 crores.
  • Of this, Rs. 10 to 12 crores will be executed in the current financial year; the balance will carry over to the next financial year.
  • The company has won new business worth Rs. 120 crores in the recent quarter, with most SOPs planned for FY'26.
  • MHCV truck aircon business is expected to generate additional revenues in the range of Rs. 160 to 175 crores per year post regulatory implementation in October 2025.
  • The tractor radiator and aircon market is emerging, with growing OEM engagements.
  • EV bus aircon orders are in evaluation and prototyping, with ongoing efforts to penetrate further in the next 6 to 8 months.
  • The company is watchful of market conditions before committing to large investments, especially in electric compressors and EV-related capacities.

Capex plans

Yes
  • Subros has received formal board approval for a new Greenfield project at Kharkhoda, Haryana.
  • Planned investment: Rs. 150 crores towards setting up a plant for Hoses, Tubes, and ECM with a capacity of 460,000 to 500,000 units.
  • The new plant will focus on sustainability, automation, and digitalization.
  • Expected operational commencement: April 2026.
  • Funding: Approximately 25% from internal accruals and 75% via bank borrowing, subject to business conditions.
  • There is ongoing feasibility work for setting up electric compressor manufacturing in India; estimated investment cost between Rs. 90 to 120 crores.
  • Capex decisions on electric compressors are cautious, pending clearer EV market penetration.

How does Subros Ltd rank vs peers in Industrial Products?

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1Subros Ltd
Rev 4Mar 3

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