Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles LtdQ3 FY23Automobiles

Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles Ltd

Q3 FY23 Earnings Call Analysis

Management growth scorecard

Revenue

Category 4

Margin

Category 3

Fundraise

Order

Capex

Yes

1 of 5 growth signals are positive — mixed outlook.

Revenue guidance

Category 4

→Tata Motors expects to stay committed to improving the value proposition with every model year and regulatory change for sustained growth (Page 21).
→PV segment is expected to see strong festive season growth (30% registrations growth during Navaratra) backed by new launches and CNG success (Page 21).
→Nexon new model is receiving very strong response with 3-4 months waiting period; EV bookings have increased 2-3 times compared to normal times (Page 21).
→PV industry mid-to-long term growth projected at 6-7% CAGR; FY 2025 expected to have single-digit growth (Page 17).
→EV sales currently concentrated in 25 cities; expansion into larger markets anticipated to drive growth (Page 18).
→Introduction of new EV price points and body styles expected to broaden market and increase volume (Page 18).
→Commercial vehicle market share improving, especially in M&HCV and ILMCV; focus on profitable growth in SCV segment via B2C pivot (Pages 8, 20).
→Inventory and supply constraints expected to ease, supporting volume growth in H2 (Page 12).

Category 3

→EBIT margin guidance remains to reach double-digit levels by FY 2026, with no changes despite current year update to 8% (Richard Molyneux, p.20).
→Tata Motors anticipates profitable growth from new electric Jaguar models, contributing positively to future EBITDA and EBIT (p.18).
→For FY 2025, moderate single-digit growth is expected in the passenger vehicle segment, with industry mid-to-long-term CAGR around 6-7% (Shailesh Chandra, p.17).
→Commercial vehicles (M&HCV) expected to see continued double-digit YoY growth in Q3, flattish to slight growth in Q4; overall FY 2025 outlook to be clearer post-Q1 elections (Girish Wagh, p.16).
→Free cash flow for current year guided at GBP 2 billion, despite EBIT improvement, due to increased investment in BEV production capacity (p.13).
→EBITDA improvements supported by material cost savings, reduced marketing expenses, and strong pricing/mix (p.5-6).
→EV business profitability nearing double-digit EBITDA, with expected further improvement as battery prices decline (p.10-11).

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→Currently, there are no plans for fundraising through the EV arm; the business is well-funded.
→Capex funding is secured with Rs. 7,500 crore from TPG covering 50% of the Rs. 2,000 crore planned funding.
→Additional funding support is expected from the Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme, which benefits capex spending.
→Internal expectations are that PLI benefits, pending government approval and certificate, may be realized by Q4.
→Tata Motors is on track to reduce net debt at JLR from GBP 2.249 billion to below GBP 1 billion by the end of the financial year, indicating continued debt management.
→No immediate new debt or equity fundraising has been highlighted; focus remains on executing current plans and deleveraging.

→JLR order book was around 168,000 units (Page 5).
→Order book runs down steadily by about 5,000 units per month, expected to normalize to pre-pandemic levels (~110,000 units) by end of FY or start of next fiscal year (Page 16).
→Tata Motors PV segment saw order book depletion during the festive period due to deliveries, but replenished through new successful launches like Harrier, Safari, Nexon (Page 24).
→Nexon bookings 2-3 times higher than normal; waiting periods 3-4 months depending on variant (Page 21).
→Curvv and Sierra models planned for launch in 2024 and 2025 respectively; Sanand plant production starting H1 2024 (Page 23).
→ACE EV has initial orders from 4 customers, growing retail traction, deploying vehicles month-over-month; finance and charging infrastructure being improved (Page 15).

Yes

→Tata Motors has secured Rs. 7,500 crore from TPG, covering 50% of a planned $2 billion funding for the India EV arm, along with PLI benefits, indicating strong capex funding.
→PLI scheme requires Rs. 120 crore threshold capex with a target of Rs. 2,000 crore for eligibility; benefits include 13%-18% incentives on EV sales.
→Upcoming investments for new generation BEV production planned at UK plants Halewood and Solihull (investment levels expected to rise in H2).
→Tata Motors plans Rs. 8,000 crore capex spend for the current year, on track to deliver.
→Additional Rs. 100 crore planned investment over next 2-3 years in Freight Tiger for digital freight management.
→Investment also ongoing in Tata Technologies with strategic sale to TPG Climate Rise fund focusing on green technologies.
→Focus on EV battery plants with UK and India plants announced, with updates to be shared soon.

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