Vikram Solar Ltd

Q4 FY27 Earnings Call Analysis

Electrical Equipment

Full Stock Analysis
fundraise: Yescapex: Yesrevenue: Category 2margin: Category 3orderbook: Yes
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fundraise

Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?

- Vikram Solar plans capex of around INR 10,700 crores over the next 2-3 years, split as INR 6,400 crores for cell and module capacities and INR 4,300 crores for Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS). - For the cell and module expansion (INR 6,400 crores), funding will include INR 3,800 crores debt and the balance through equity; approx. INR 1,500 crores equity has already been raised via IPO, with the remainder expected from internal accruals. - For the BESS capex (INR 4,300 crores), funding structure is anticipated at 65% debt (about INR 2,800 crores) and 35% equity (around INR 1,300 crores), with financial closure underway. - Equity portion for both expansions will largely come from internal accruals gradually. - No explicit mention of fresh fundraising beyond these planned debt and equity raises for capex was stated.
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capex

Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?

- INR 6,400 crores capex planned for cell and module manufacturing expansion over next 24-30 months. - This includes shifting and commissioning a 12 GW cell plant (9 GW line from Thailand plus 3 GW organic expansion), expected operational by December 2026. - Equity requirement for this capex around INR 2,400 crores, funded through IPO proceeds and internal accruals. - INR 4,300 crores capex planned for Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) facilities with 7.5 GWh integrated capacity. - Initial 5 GWh battery pack unit to commission in FY27; full integrated cell and battery pack facility to follow. - Debt-equity funding mix for BESS capex planned at approximately 65:35, with financial closure underway. - Current capex spend till December 2025 is ~INR 300 crores; Q4 FY26 expected capex heavy (~INR 900 crores).
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revenue

Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?

- FY '26 sales volume at 2.3 GW in 9 months, up significantly from 1.1 GW in 9MFY '25, indicating strong growth momentum. - Q3 FY'26 sales volume of 796 MW, up from 590 MW YoY, with revenues increasing to INR1,106 crores from INR1,026 crores. - FY '27 order inflow target set at 1.2x to 1.3x of scheduled deliveries for next four quarters, roughly 14-15 GW. - Strong order book expected to sustain operations through next 4-5 quarters and healthy pipeline anticipated beyond FY'28. - Utility-scale solar demand projected at 35 GW DC in FY'28, supported by tendered capacity pipeline of 70-75 GW non-DCR and over 15 GW DCR. - Growth driven by utility-scale, C&I, rooftop solar, and storage sectors. - Continued focus on expanding manufacturing capacity including 5 GW module and 12 GW cell plants, plus battery energy storage system investments. - Exports to remain a growth area contingent on tariff conditions and competitive manufacturing scale.
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margin

Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?

- Vikram Solar expects sustained strong performance driven by a robust order book and expanding manufacturing capacity (Page 8). - The company projects healthy utility-scale Demand Control Regulations (DCR) demand of 30-35 GW for FY '28, supporting future revenue growth (Page 16). - EBITDA margins are expected to remain stable around 18-20% for Non-DCR business despite raw material cost pressures, reflecting cost pass-through contracts (Pages 11, 15). - Profit after tax for 9MFY26 showed a significant increase compared to previous year, indicating strong earnings growth momentum (Page 8). - Capacity expansions, including a 12 GW integrated cell and module plant by end CY 2026, improve operating leverage and potential profitability (Pages 14, 15). - Technological upgrades like transitioning to N-type TOPCon modules enhance product competitiveness and margins long-term (Pages 13, 14). - Management remains committed to disciplined capital allocation and regular investor updates, reinforcing long-term earnings visibility (Pages 21, 22).
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orderbook

Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?

- FY '26 order inflow was around 9.5 GW. - FY '27 target order inflow is approximately 14-15 GW, aiming for 1.2x to 1.3x of scheduled deliveries for the next four quarters. - Order book split: ~50% from IPPs; government orders are periodic and sporadic. - Increasing focus on Commercial & Industrial (C&I) and distribution segments for future orders. - Current order book is sufficient to support operations for the next 4-5 quarters, even without cell capacity. - Addressable market: 104 GW of tendered capacity (non-DCR) plus 15 GW for DCR in next two fiscals. - Post threshold date (Sept 1, 2025), about 20 GW of DCR Request for Selection (RFS) issued; expecting 30-35 GW utility-scale DCR demand in FY '28. - No decline in order momentum or developer interest has been observed recently.