Adani Power Ltd Q1 FY27 Earnings Analysis

- FY27 expected to see strong growth in overall power demand and peak demand, supported by economic recovery and warmer weather. - Power sales volume increased 3.4% in FY26 to 99.1 billion units with 27.2 billion units in Q4 FY26. - Capacity expansion progressing well: 23.7 GW thermal capacity addition planned by 2032. - New PPAs secured totaling 13.3 GW for expansion; 95% of operating capacity tied under long/medium-term PPAs ensuring revenue visibility. - Upcoming commissioning of projects like Korba Phase-II (1.32 GW), Mahan Phase-II (1.6 GW next year), Raipur and Raigarh Phase-II supporting volume growth. - EBITDA expected to double to INR 50,000 crore by FY31, driven by capacity addition and better PPA tariffs. - Anticipated significant earnings and cash flow growth post expansion, with improved future return metrics due to higher capacity charges.

- Adani Power targets EBITDA to reach INR 50,000 crores by FY 2031, possibly as early as FY 2030 if no disruptions occur. - FY 26 EBITDA stood at INR 23,431 crores, with strong Q4 growth of 27% year-on-year to INR 6,498 crores. - PAT for FY 26 was INR 12,971 crores, demonstrating earnings resilience. - Capacity expansion of 23.7 GW planned by 2032, with 13.3 GW tied up under long-term PPAs, assuring stable and increased revenue streams. - Majority of operating capacity (95%) is under long/medium-term PPAs, providing earnings visibility and reduced market volatility risk. - Surplus cash flow expected by FY 31-32 after debt repayment, enabling further growth or becoming a debt-free company. - Cash flow growth will be driven by commissioning of new capacity additions from FY 29 to FY 32, adding 4+ GW annually. - Operating cash flows improved from INR 14,000 crores in FY23-24 to around INR 21,000 crores in FY25-26, expected to grow with capacity expansion.

- FY26-27 capex: ~INR 25,000 crores - FY27-28 capex: ~INR 33,000 crores - Ongoing expansion plan total: INR 2 lakh crores - Capacity additions: 1.32 GW (Korba Phase-II) in FY26-27; 1.6 GW (Mahan plant) in FY27-28 - Planned to add 4 GW+ capacity annually from FY29 to FY32 - Target capacity: 42 GW by FY31-32 (planned 24 GW thermal expansion currently underway) - Potential strategic investments in nuclear power through new SPVs; site identification and approvals in progress pending government rules - Incorporated SPV in Bhutan for a 570 MW hydro power plant - Business expects large cash surpluses post FY31-32 used for further growth or making the company debt-free - Focus on execution to achieve planned capacity and leverage new opportunities in power (thermal, hydro, nuclear, transmission)

- Currently arranging interim funding from the domestic capital market or domestic banks to cover interim gaps. - Recently raised INR 7,500 crores via secured non-convertible debentures. - Raised interim funds from domestic banks as corporate debt. - The majority portion of expansion capex is planned to be funded through internal accruals over time. - No explicit mention of future equity fundraising as of now. - Focus is on maintaining strong credit ratings, liquidity, and conservative capital management. - Plans to pay off entire debt by FY31-32 and become a debt-free company thereafter.

- Adani Power has tied up 10.4 GW of expansion capacity under long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) during FY26. - The total tied-up expansion capacity now stands at 13.3 GW, with new PPAs including a 1,600 MW from Maharashtra DISCOM. - Upcoming PPAs in the market amount to approximately 13 GW from states like Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Uttarakhand, West Bengal, and Gujarat. - Gujarat has recently issued a bidding document for another 4,000 MW. - Capacity additions under the expansion plan aim to reach 42 GW by FY31-32. - Revenue visibility is strengthened with 95% of operating capacity tied under long- and medium-term PPAs. - The company is actively commissioning projects, e.g., Korba Phase-II (1.32 GW), and plans capex near INR 25,000 crores for FY27 and INR 33,000 crores for FY28 to support the expansion.