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Ajmera Realty & Infra India LtdQ1 FY23

Ajmera Realty & Infra India Ltd

Q1 FY23 Earnings Call Analysis

Management growth scorecard

Revenue

Category 2

Margin

Category 1

Fundraise

N/A

Order

Yes

Capex

Yes

3 of 4 growth signals are positive.

Full analysis

Revenue guidance

Category 2
  • Estimated revenue from four launches in FY24: approx. INR 2,000 crores with about 1 million sq.ft. carpet area to sell.
  • Total revenue visibility from existing projects in FY24: approx. INR 2,000 crores.
  • Combined revenue visibility (existing + new launches) in FY24: approx. INR 4,000 crores.
  • Annual sales value target for next year (FY24) expected to cross INR 1,000 crores, indicating growth from INR 842 crores in FY23.
  • Sales volume growth supported by 50% YoY increase in FY23 (3.7 lakh sq.ft. sold); continued growth expected.
  • Sales of new INR 2,000 crore projects expected over 3-4 years with initial 10-15% sales velocity during launch phase.
  • Long-term goal to grow company sales 5X from current levels.
  • Preference toward completing and selling existing unsold inventory of INR 1,400 crores plus launching new pipeline of approx. INR 2,000 crores.

Margin guidance

Category 1
  • Ajmera Realty aims aggressive growth with 4-5 project launches year-on-year.
  • Sales value expected to grow from INR 842 crore (FY23) to around INR 1,000 crore+ in FY24.
  • New project pipeline revenue potential: INR 2,000 crore+ for FY24 launches.
  • Total revenue visibility (existing + new projects) for FY24: approx. INR 4,000 crore.
  • EBITDA margin currently at 25%+, expected to expand further due to operational efficiencies and debt reduction.
  • PAT increased 1.6x in FY23 with margin expansion from 9% to 16%; positive outlook on profit growth.
  • Debt-to-equity ratio expected to reduce significantly below 1 in 2-3 years, aiding profitability.
  • Delivery timelines of 3-4 years on ongoing projects, supporting steady revenue and earnings growth.
  • Strong focus on on-time product delivery and brand trust to maintain market share and profitability.

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Fundraise plans

  • No explicit mention of immediate new fundraising through debt or equity was made in the transcript.
  • The company has been focusing on debt reduction, having deleveraged by about INR 54 crores in FY23, with a current debt-equity ratio of 1:1.
  • The management aims to reduce the debt-equity ratio significantly below 1 over the next 2-3 years.
  • They acknowledge the presence of project-level or construction finance debt, which will continue to support growth and launches.
  • There was mention of a "structure deal" with a global private equity player in progress, but it remains work in progress with no specific timeline or confirmation of closure.
  • Overall, the company seems focused on optimizing existing financial resources and debt deleveraging rather than raising new equity or debt immediately.

Order book

Yes
  • Estimated overall cash flow generation from existing portfolio: INR 870 crores.
  • Pending collections from all projects (completed, advanced stage, mid-stage): INR 624 crores.
  • Sales potential from balance inventory in advanced completion stage projects: INR 200 crores.
  • Unsold inventory value: Approximately INR 1,400 crores.
  • New project pipeline to be launched this year: INR 2,000 crores.
  • Total projects (unsold inventory + new launches) expected: Around INR 3,500-4,000 crores.
  • Revenue visibility from mid-stage projects expected over next 36 months: INR 1,677 crores.
  • Revenue potential from launches for FY24: Over INR 2,000 crores.
  • The company expects a strong order book supported by both existing projects and upcoming launches, targeting completion and sales within 3-4 years.

Capex plans

Yes
  • The company plans to unlock land potential that is fully paid and owned, exploring joint ventures, joint development, and redevelopment projects as part of its growth strategy.
  • Focus on core cities: Mumbai, Pune, Bangalore, with Mumbai and Bangalore being larger markets; Ahmadabad also considered.
  • Recent land acquisition in Vikhroli East, Mumbai, with an estimated gross value of around INR 550 crores; launch expected by Q4 FY24 targeting new home buyers.
  • Four launches planned in FY24 including Vikhroli and Ajmera Eden projects, with estimated revenue of approx. INR 2,000 crores and about 1 million square feet carpet area.
  • Strategic focus and launches to grow business 5X from current levels.
  • Kanjurmarg land project: ongoing strategic planning with launch expected after ensuring all approvals and infrastructure are in place.
  • Continued investment in ongoing and new projects with expected completions over three to four years.

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