Australian Premium Solar (India) LtdQ3 FY24Electrical Equipment

Australian Premium Solar (India) Ltd

Q3 FY24 Earnings Call Analysis

Management growth scorecard

Revenue

Category 1

Margin

Category 3

Fundraise

N/A

Order

Yes

Capex

Yes

3 of 4 growth signals are positive.

Full analysis

Revenue guidance

Category 1

→Australian Premium Solar (APS) expects robust growth across key segments over the next 3-5 years.
→Rooftop solar segment: Anticipated 50-60%+ growth in India, expanding across multiple states beyond Gujarat.
→Solar pump segment: Rapid growth expected with presence in Gujarat, Haryana, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, and Jharkhand; revenues from pump segment already showing exponential growth.
→Wholesale/distribution: Expanding from Gujarat to other states like Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, and UP, supported by India's 500 GW renewable energy target by 2030.
→Overall expected revenue growth: About 70-75% CAGR for the next 2-3 years, slowing to 40-50% CAGR subsequently.
→New capacity expansion: Additional 400 MW (first phase) of capacity coming online by 2025 with plans for up to 800 MW expansion to support volume growth.
→Future potential includes ground mounting megawatt supplies and export markets after solidifying domestic markets.

Margin guidance

Category 3

→Australian Premium Solar (APS) expects strong growth across all segments over the next 3-5 years, with rooftop solar projected to grow 50-60% or more annually in the India market.
→Solar pump segment is also anticipated to grow significantly, supported by government tenders, with current operations in multiple states and plans for further expansion.
→Distribution business is expanding beyond Gujarat to other states like Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, and UP, with good growth prospects aligned with India’s 500 GW renewable target by 2030.
→APS foresees 60-70%+ year-over-year growth for the next few years, with a 70-75% CAGR expected for FY25-26 before slowing to 40-50% CAGR thereafter.
→EBITA margin guidance is steady at 13-15%, with past margins around 12%, and margins beyond 15% considered optimistic.
→Operating cash flow is expected to turn positive by next financial year (FY25 or FY26), supporting expansion plans.

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Fundraise plans

→Currently, no definite decision on new fundraising via debt or equity has been made.
→The company may discuss possible funding options in the future as per requirement.
→Cash flow is expected to be positive by the next financial year (2025-2026), reducing immediate funding pressure.
→Existing arrangements with banks are in place to support cash flow needs.
→Future fundraising might be considered to support expansion plans, including the new topcon facility and solar cell manufacturing, but no specifics are confirmed yet.

Order book

Yes

Based on the provided transcript from the Australian Premium Solar (India) Ltd conference call, there is no explicit mention or detailed discussion about the current or expected orderbook or pending orders figures. The call primarily focuses on: - Capacity utilization and expansion plans (600 MW current, adding 250 MW next year) - Growth segments such as rooftop solar, solar pumps, and plans for future verticals like solar cells and topcon technology - Margin guidance (around 13-15% EBITA margin) - Geographic expansion plans (Gujarat, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Jharkhand, Haryana) - Cash flow and working capital management - No specific data on current order backlog or pending orders numbers disclosed in the transcript Hence, no quantitative or qualitative information regarding present or expected orderbook/pending orders could be found in the shared pages.

Capex plans

Yes

→Planning to expand capacity with a new 800-megawatt plant; first phase starting at 400-megawatt.
→Estimated CapEx for the 400-megawatt expansion is around INR 40 crore+.
→Second expansion phase expected to be cheaper as machinery is common for 800-megawatt capacity.
→Acquired a 3.5-acre land parcel for a 250-megawatt Topcon solar plant, expected operational by Q4 2025 or Q1 2026.
→Planning to enter solar cell manufacturing in the next 18-24 months; capacity and operational details to be finalized later.
→Purchased an additional 10,000 square meter facility adjacent to existing one for future 800-megawatt line expansion.
→No finalized plans yet for fund raising or preferential issues; discussions may happen when funding decisions are made.

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