Guj Inds. PowerQ1 FY27
Guj Inds. Power Q1 FY27 Earnings Call Analysis
Revenue, margin, capex, fundraise and order book outlook from management commentary.
Price: ₹190P/E: 5.3Market Cap: ₹2.7K CrSector: Power
Management growth scorecard
Revenue
Category 2
Margin
Category 3
Fundraise
Yes
Order
N/A
Capex
Yes
2 of 4 growth signals are positive.
Full analysisRevenue guidance
Category 2- →Revenue growth expected from commissioning of additional solar capacities at Khavda: 600 MW project to generate ~INR 420 crores revenue in FY26-27; 500 MW project pending evacuation, expected to add similar revenues once operational.
- →Incremental top line growth estimated around INR 400-450 crores from Khavda solar projects in FY26-27.
- →Renewable Energy (RE) park operations anticipated to add INR 20-25 crores net revenue annually over 25 years.
- →Overall EBITDA expected to rise substantially to about INR 950-1,000 crores by FY27 with full operation of 600 MW and 500 MW projects.
- →Additional solar capacity expansion planned, targeting 200-300 MW more over next few years, subject to land availability.
- →Thermal capacity expansion of 750 MW underway with phased capex; corresponding revenue growth expected post-2027.
- →Long-term capacity addition contingent on land and connectivity, with firm land allocation for 2,375 MW solar capacity at Khavda.
Margin guidance
Category 3- →FY27 EBITDA expected to reach INR950-1,000 crores, up from around INR600 crores in FY26 solar division alone.
- →EBITDA growth driven by full commissioning of 600 MW Khavda project and 500 MW upcoming capacity.
- →Revenue addition from 600 MW Khavda and renewable park expected around INR450 crores over FY26 base.
- →PBT is expected to be good post commissioning 500 MW, though initial teething losses may occur.
- →ROE (Return on Equity) excluding gas-based stations anticipated to exceed 13%-14%.
- →Peak debt expected around INR4,500 crores, with phased capex for thermal expansion (750 MW) from 2027-2033.
- →Thermal capacity expansion capex estimated at INR6,000 crores, with lignite supply fully secured.
- →Management committed to stable dividend policy aligned with profitability and cash flows.
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Fundraise plans
Yes- →No immediate plans to raise equity for the additional INR6,000 crores thermal capacity, but if required, equity may be raised through internal accruals, promoter infusion, or market dilution.
- →Projected financing for the 750 MW thermal expansion is expected as 80% debt (around INR4,800 crores) and 20% equity (around INR1,200 crores).
- →Peak debt anticipated around INR4,500 crores after commissioning the 500 MW project, with phased debt addition and repayments over time.
- →For the proposed 200 MW solar capacity addition at Khavda, estimated project cost is INR800-1,000 crores involving a small incremental debt of about INR200-300 crores, minimal impact on the overall debt.
- →Current debt repayments structured with moratorium ending June 2026; repayment expected without significant issues given cash flows from operational assets.
Order book
- →Pending orders primarily relate to the 750 MW thermal lignite-based power station expansion.
- →Approval has been given by GUVNL in principle under Section 62 cost-plus basis for this expansion.
- →Tender for the project has been floated and is currently under observation by BHEL and other parties.
- →The order is expected to be placed by the end of the current financial year or last quarter.
- →Post-order placement, the project will commence, with a target to commission 3 units of 250 MW each over the next three to four years.
- →For the 500 MW project, borrowing and capitalization processes are ongoing; the commissioning is in advanced stages, awaiting power evacuation readiness.
- →Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) tenders are in place for Baroda location to repurpose gas-based plant facilities.
- →No explicit mention of a formal orderbook figure, but multiple tenders and projects are active with timelines extending over next 1-4 years.
Capex plans
Yes- →**500 MW Solar Project at Khavda:** Capital work in progress ~INR2,065 crores; expected commissioning post-monsoon 2026; associated peak debt around INR4,500 crores after full commissioning.
- →**Additional 200-300 MW Solar Capacity:** Planned medium-term addition subject to land availability; part of the pipeline beyond 1,100 MW capacity.
- →**Battery Energy Storage System (BESS):** Conversion of Baroda gas plant site into BESS; first phase 20/120 MW approved with INR250-300 crores capex; potential future expansions planned.
- →**750 MW Thermal Lignite-based Expansion:** Capex INR6,000-7,000 crores phased over 2027-2032/33; includes three 250 MW units; approved by GUVNL and tender process underway.
- →**Pumped Storage Projects:** Location identification ongoing; bids being prepared to secure government projects.
- →**Solar Park Development Revenues:** Acting as park developer for Khavda park (2,375 MW total), expected to generate INR20-25 crores net revenue annually via O&M services for 25 years.
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