NMDC LtdQ4 FY24Minerals & Mining

NMDC Ltd

Q4 FY24 Earnings Call Analysis

Management growth scorecard

Revenue

Category 3

Margin

Category 3

Fundraise

N/A

Order

N/A

Capex

Yes

1 of 3 growth signals are positive — mixed outlook.

Revenue guidance

Category 3

→NMDC targets around 50 million tons production and sales in FY 2024, up from about 40 million tons currently, aiming for roughly 10 million tons growth year-on-year.
→Production increase to come from expansion at Karnataka mines (from 7 to 10 million tons) and Balldilla sectors, including the commissioning of a fifth screening line.
→Completion of infrastructure projects like slurry pipelines and railway line doubling will support capacity increase to 70-75 million tons in the near to medium term.
→Demand is strong with substantial orders but constrained by logistics, especially availability of rakes (railway wagons).
→NMDC plans to explore exports starting Q4 FY 2023, leveraging improved international prices (~$120/ton) and lower shipping costs.
→Value addition through pellet plants is underway to utilize low-grade ore and expand product offerings, targeted to be operational by end of 2024.
→Overall, management expects stable to slightly growing volumes this fiscal, with significant jump in next financial year enabled by logistics improvements and project completions.

Category 3

→Projected full-year EPS is expected to be around INR 15, with current nine-month EPS about INR 11.
→FY '24 production target aims for 50 million tons, approximately 10 million tons growth year-on-year.
→Growth supported by capacity increases at Donimalai and Balldilla sectors, plus new screening plant.
→Capex planned around INR 1,500-1,600 crores in FY '24 (excluding steel plant).
→Export opportunities targeted from Q4 FY '23 onward, with viable pricing around $120/ton.
→Pellet plant expansion planned to improve utilization and reduce losses; commissioning expected by end of next calendar year.
→Operating profits expected to improve as pellet plant capacity utilization reaches ~55-60%.
→Logistics and infrastructure upgrades (slurry pipeline, railway line doubling) aimed at supporting volume and revenue growth.
→Dividend payout decisions remain open, with interim dividends declared; current cash reserves approximately INR 8,000 crores.

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→There is no explicit mention of any new fundraising through equity or debt in the call transcript.
→The company currently holds a strong cash balance of around INR 8,000 crores with a net cash position of approximately INR 6,300 crores after considering short-term borrowings.
→Capex plans for this year are around INR 3,500 crores (including steel plant), excluding steel plant about INR 2,000 crores, and around INR 1,500-1,600 crores planned for next year excluding the steel plant.
→There is no indication of immediate plans for raising funds through new borrowings; existing borrowing is short term amounting to INR 2,395 crores.
→The company appears to be funding its expansion and acquisition plans via internal cash resources.
→Price discovery for the 10% stake acquisition in the steel plant will be market-driven post-listing, with no current indication of equity fundraising related to this.

→As per the transcript on page 17, NMDC is witnessing strong demand with substantial orders in hand.
→There is no indication of order backlog or pending orders causing production issues.
→The primary challenge is logistics, specifically the availability of railway rakes for evacuation and delivery of materials.
→The company is actively coordinating with railways on a daily basis to ensure rakes' availability and smooth dispatch.
→Demand pillars include strong domestic consumption and emerging export opportunities expected to commence by the end of Q4 FY23.
→Export plans are being made from ports such as Vishakhapatnam and Krishnapatnam to leverage favorable international prices.
→Overall, order fulfillment is expected to ramp up as logistics constraints are resolved.

Yes

→Capex Spend:
→ - FY23: ~INR 3,500 crores (including steel plant), excluding steel plant ~INR 2,000 crores.
→ - FY24: Planned capex ~INR 1,500-1,600 crores excluding steel plant.
→Major Projects Underway:
→ - Slurry pipeline expected by end 2024.
→ - Screening plant at Kirandul.
→ - Bacheli mine infrastructure ongoing.
→ - Coal blocks development.
→Pellet Plant:
→ - Current pellet plant operational but expects losses to reduce after capacity utilization reaches 55-60%.
→ - New larger pellet plant considered at Visakhapatnam or nearby, expected setup time 1.5-2 years, targeting commissioning by end of 2024.
→Steel Plant:
→ - 10% stake acquisition in NMDC Steel, purchase price yet to be decided (market-determined after listing).
→ - Commissioning targeted around March 2023 end/early next financial year.
→Strategic International Investments:
→ - Investments in overseas entities like Shunshine (~INR 240 crores) and ICBL (26% stake, INR 380 crores).

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