RattanIndia Power LtdQ1 FY24Power

RattanIndia Power Ltd

Q1 FY24 Earnings Call Analysis

Management growth scorecard

Revenue

Category 3

Margin

N/A

Fundraise

Yes

Order

N/A

Capex

Yes

2 of 3 growth signals are positive.

Full analysis

Revenue guidance

Category 3

→RattanIndia Power is operating near peak capacity with ~90% contracted plant under PPA at Amravati (1350 MW), running at ~82-83% PLF.
→Merchant sales started recently (28 MW in FY24), with plans to expand merchant capacity to around 300 MW.
→Regulatory receivables exceeding Rs. 2500 crore will add to future cash flows and revenue.
→Future growth to come from capacity expansion options: either thermal expansion (660-800 MW units) or renewables, or both.
→Thermal expansion estimated CAPEX around Rs. 6000 crore, requiring approx. Rs. 1500 crore equity.
→Expansion timing depends on debt repayment completion, targeted within current financial year, enabling freer pursuit of growth.
→Renewables seen as a strategic growth direction leveraging prior experience and market conditions.
→Overall, management focuses on stable EBITDA (~Rs. 1000-1100 crore annually) with future top-line growth via capacity additions and regulatory dues realization.

Margin guidance

→Operating profits (EBITDA) expected to remain stable around Rs.1000-1100 crore annually, with slight year-to-year variations due to PPA tariff structures and escalations.
→Interest costs are steadily reducing as long-term debt is being paid off, leading to improving profit before tax and net profits.
→Historical losses provide a tax shield, so near-term profits will not be heavily taxed, enhancing net earnings.
→Expansion plans include thermal plant capacity increases (660-800 MW units) and growth in renewables, both expected to drive future revenue and EBITDA growth.
→Regulatory receivables of over Rs.2500 crore expected to be realized over the next 3-4 years, bolstering cash flow.
→Merchant power sales have started recently and may increase, supplementing revenues.
→Overall outlook is positive with growth expected as debt is paid off and capacity expansion is pursued.

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Fundraise plans

Yes

→No explicit mention of any immediate new fundraising through debt or equity in the call.
→The company is currently focused on paying off existing long-term debt, specifically aiming to repay the Kotak Bank loan (₹522 crores as of March 31, 2024) within the current financial year.
→Post debt repayment, the company plans to pursue expansion projects, including capacity expansion at Amravati plant and renewable energy ventures.
→Expansion plans may require substantial capital (for example, a thermal expansion of 660 MW may involve a ₹6000 crore project with roughly ₹1500 crore equity and the rest through debt).
→The company states they are frugal with hiring and capital spending, willing to add resources or raise capital only when necessary.
→No concrete timeline or decision on raising fresh funds yet; plans are contingent on debt repayment and future expansion decisions.

Order book

The transcript of RattanIndia Power Limited’s Q4 & FY24 earnings call does not explicitly mention the current or expected order book or pending orders. However, key points related to business and expansion plans include: - The company is focusing on capacity expansion at Amravati and Sinnar plants and renewables. - They aim to finalize concrete expansion plans in the coming months after repaying long-term debts. - There is a significant regulatory receivable of over Rs. 2500 crore, which will add to future cash flows. - The company is exploring new ventures such as data centers on its free land near Amravati. - The Sinnar 1050 MW plant is under NCLT, with uncertain future resolution but efforts will be made to regain control. - Merchant power operations started recently (35-50 MW) with scope to expand. Specific details about a formal order book or pending orders are not disclosed in the transcript.

Capex plans

Yes

→Considering capacity expansion at Amravati plant (either one unit of 660 MW or 800 MW supercritical unit).
→Estimated cost for a 660 MW thermal expansion around Rs.6000 crore, requiring approx. Rs.1500 crore equity and rest through debt.
→Exploring renewable energy options, including solar, with flexibility on project sizes based on land availability and bids.
→Strategic plans to finalize in coming months after repaying external debt, targeted in the current financial year.
→Possibility of deploying cash flows from Amravati and regulatory receivables into thermal and renewable expansion.
→Planning commercial use of surplus land (over 1000 acres) near Amravati for data centers or other infrastructure requiring power and water.
→Experience in renewables leveraged from group’s past successful solar projects.
→No fixed timeline yet for new capex; decisions to be made post debt clearance.

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