Adani Power LtdQ1 FY27
Adani Power Ltd Q1 FY27 Earnings Call Analysis
Revenue, margin, capex, fundraise and order book outlook from management commentary.
Price: ₹214P/E: 33.3Market Cap: ₹4.3L CrSector: Power
Management growth scorecard
Revenue
Category 2
Margin
Category 3
Fundraise
Yes
Order
N/A
Capex
Yes
2 of 4 growth signals are positive.
Full analysisRevenue guidance
Category 2- →FY27 expected to see strong growth in overall power demand and peak demand, supported by economic recovery and warmer weather.
- →Power sales volume increased 3.4% in FY26 to 99.1 billion units with 27.2 billion units in Q4 FY26.
- →Capacity expansion progressing well: 23.7 GW thermal capacity addition planned by 2032.
- →New PPAs secured totaling 13.3 GW for expansion; 95% of operating capacity tied under long/medium-term PPAs ensuring revenue visibility.
- →Upcoming commissioning of projects like Korba Phase-II (1.32 GW), Mahan Phase-II (1.6 GW next year), Raipur and Raigarh Phase-II supporting volume growth.
- →EBITDA expected to double to INR 50,000 crore by FY31, driven by capacity addition and better PPA tariffs.
- →Anticipated significant earnings and cash flow growth post expansion, with improved future return metrics due to higher capacity charges.
Margin guidance
Category 3- →Adani Power targets EBITDA to reach INR 50,000 crores by FY 2031, possibly as early as FY 2030 if no disruptions occur.
- →FY 26 EBITDA stood at INR 23,431 crores, with strong Q4 growth of 27% year-on-year to INR 6,498 crores.
- →PAT for FY 26 was INR 12,971 crores, demonstrating earnings resilience.
- →Capacity expansion of 23.7 GW planned by 2032, with 13.3 GW tied up under long-term PPAs, assuring stable and increased revenue streams.
- →Majority of operating capacity (95%) is under long/medium-term PPAs, providing earnings visibility and reduced market volatility risk.
- →Surplus cash flow expected by FY 31-32 after debt repayment, enabling further growth or becoming a debt-free company.
- →Cash flow growth will be driven by commissioning of new capacity additions from FY 29 to FY 32, adding 4+ GW annually.
- →Operating cash flows improved from INR 14,000 crores in FY23-24 to around INR 21,000 crores in FY25-26, expected to grow with capacity expansion.
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Fundraise plans
Yes- →Currently arranging interim funding from the domestic capital market or domestic banks to cover interim gaps.
- →Recently raised INR 7,500 crores via secured non-convertible debentures.
- →Raised interim funds from domestic banks as corporate debt.
- →The majority portion of expansion capex is planned to be funded through internal accruals over time.
- →No explicit mention of future equity fundraising as of now.
- →Focus is on maintaining strong credit ratings, liquidity, and conservative capital management.
- →Plans to pay off entire debt by FY31-32 and become a debt-free company thereafter.
Order book
- →Adani Power has tied up 10.4 GW of expansion capacity under long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) during FY26.
- →The total tied-up expansion capacity now stands at 13.3 GW, with new PPAs including a 1,600 MW from Maharashtra DISCOM.
- →Upcoming PPAs in the market amount to approximately 13 GW from states like Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Uttarakhand, West Bengal, and Gujarat.
- →Gujarat has recently issued a bidding document for another 4,000 MW.
- →Capacity additions under the expansion plan aim to reach 42 GW by FY31-32.
- →Revenue visibility is strengthened with 95% of operating capacity tied under long- and medium-term PPAs.
- →The company is actively commissioning projects, e.g., Korba Phase-II (1.32 GW), and plans capex near INR 25,000 crores for FY27 and INR 33,000 crores for FY28 to support the expansion.
Capex plans
Yes- →FY26-27 capex: ~INR 25,000 crores
- →FY27-28 capex: ~INR 33,000 crores
- →Ongoing expansion plan total: INR 2 lakh crores
- →Capacity additions: 1.32 GW (Korba Phase-II) in FY26-27; 1.6 GW (Mahan plant) in FY27-28
- →Planned to add 4 GW+ capacity annually from FY29 to FY32
- →Target capacity: 42 GW by FY31-32 (planned 24 GW thermal expansion currently underway)
- →Potential strategic investments in nuclear power through new SPVs; site identification and approvals in progress pending government rules
- →Incorporated SPV in Bhutan for a 570 MW hydro power plant
- →Business expects large cash surpluses post FY31-32 used for further growth or making the company debt-free
- →Focus on execution to achieve planned capacity and leverage new opportunities in power (thermal, hydro, nuclear, transmission)
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