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Tamil Nadu Newsprint & Papers LtdQ3 FY22

Tamil Nadu Newsprint & Papers Ltd Q3 FY22 Earnings Call Analysis

Revenue, margin, capex, fundraise and order book outlook from management commentary.

Price: 145P/E: 4.2Market Cap: ₹1.0K CrSector: Paper, Forest & Jute Products

Management growth scorecard

Revenue

Category 3

Margin

Category 3

Fundraise

N/A

Order

N/A

Capex

Yes

1 of 3 growth signals are positive — mixed outlook.

Full analysis

Revenue guidance

Category 3
Future growth expectations of the company outlined in the document include: - Packaging boards demand expected to grow by 12%-15% annually in virgin fibre-based products; recycled boards growth at 8%-9% per annum. - Focus on increasing market share in higher value-added virgin fibre boards, including cup stocks. - Capacity utilization targets: 86% in board and 81% in paper for 2021; aiming to reach beyond 95% in the board category. - Mill expansion plan underway with chemical hardwood pulp plant to reduce dependence on imports and lower production costs, targeted commissioning in late 2021. - Shift product mix towards virgin fibre grades like folding box boards and SBS boards to utilize in-house pulp. - Indian paper industry's growing capacity utilization (80%-90%) aligned with economic upturn. - Estimated rise in per capita paper consumption in India from 16 kg to 20 kg by 2025, supporting demand growth. - Anticipated market stability with minimal imports and moderate pricing pressures in the packaging board segment for 2021-22.

Margin guidance

Category 3
  • The packaging board industry is expected to grow at 12%-15% annually in virgin fiber-based products; recycled boards to grow at 8%-9% per annum, indicating healthy demand growth.
  • Despite cost pressures from a surge in raw materials, the company has managed cost containment and sales growth, suggesting improving profitability prospects.
  • Capacity utilization was strong in 2021 (86% board, 81% paper), with board category utilization above 95%, supporting operating leverage benefits.
  • Mill expansion project (MEP) phase one commissioning in late 2021 aims to substitute costly imported pulp, reducing production costs and improving margins.
  • The company focuses on shifting product mix towards higher value-added virgin fiber packaging boards, likely enhancing earnings quality.
  • Market conditions are expected to stabilize in 2021-22 with limited imports, supporting stable pricing and margins.
  • Global input cost pressures exist but demand growth in emerging economies supports a positive medium-term outlook.
  • Overall, growth in earnings, operating profits, and EPS is expected driven by growth in packaging boards, cost efficiencies, and capacity expansions.

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Fundraise plans

  • The company has undertaken a Mill Expansion Plan (MEP) at a capital cost of Rs 2,520 Cr, with Phase One costing Rs 1,250 Cr.
  • During the year, the overall borrowings increased by Rs 534 Cr, indicating debt fundraising to support capital expenditure.
  • Despite the requirement of funds for capital expenditure and loan repayment, the Board recommended a dividend payment, suggesting financial confidence.
  • No specific mention of future fundraising through equity is noted in the available transcript.
  • The company is focused on operational efficiency and cost containment amidst challenges, implying prudent financial management.
  • Any elaborate updates on fundraising are likely addressed through official communications or email responses as per company protocol.

Order book

  • The document does not explicitly mention the current or expected order book or pending orders in numeric or detailed terms.
  • However, it notes strong demand in pharmaceuticals, foods, and FMCG sectors, with the company able to market the entire production and reduce stocks.
  • Packaging board business showed much better performance with expected growth of 12%-15% in virgin fibre-based packaging products and 8%-9% in recycled boards.
  • Some pricing pressure is anticipated in the second half of the year due to additional capacity being commissioned.
  • Demand is expected to remain stable in 2021-22 with minimal imports.
  • The company focuses on increasing market share in higher value-added virgin fibre boards, which may imply a healthy order pipeline in that segment.
  • The reopening of offices and institutions is expected to regularize demand, hinting at improving order inflows.

Capex plans

Yes
- The company is implementing a Mill Expansion Plan (MEP) at a capital cost of Rs 2,520 Cr, located at Mondipatty village, Tiruchirappalli district, executed in two phases. - Phase one of MEP involves commissioning a 400 tons per day chemical hardwood pulp plant with chemical recovery system and a 20MW turbo generator at a capital outlay of Rs 1,250 Cr. - Phase one major benefits include substituting costly imported or purchased chemical hardwood pulp, reducing production costs of packing boards. - All major plants and machinery of phase one have been erected, with pulp mill commissioning targeted for October 2021 and pulp production in November 2021. - The mill expansion will improve quality and efficiency, producing environmentally friendly pulp with reduced water and power consumption. - The company aims to align operations to achieve a production target of 1 million tons of paper and paperboard by 2030. This outlines the company's current and planned significant capital investments focused on capacity enhancement and cost optimization.

How does Tamil Nadu Newsprint & Papers Ltd rank vs peers in Paper, Forest & Jute Products?

Pro feature
1Tamil Nadu Newsprint & Papers Ltd
Rev 3Mar 3

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