NTPC Ltd Q3 FY26 Earnings Analysis

- India's power demand is expected to rise steadily with GDP growth projected between 6.5% to 7%, driven by manufacturing and digital infrastructure expansion. - NTPC Group capacity increased nearly 10% to 83,893 MW in H1 FY26, with record capacity addition of 5,359 MW in first seven months of FY26. - NTPC is targeting capacity additions of 9,844 MW in FY26, 9,600 MW in FY27, and 10,564 MW in FY28, with a renewable capacity of 8,000 MW in FY28. - NGEL's revenue from operations for H1 FY26 rose 19% YoY to ₹1,292 crore, with EBITDA margin improving to 88%. - Capital expenditure at NGEL expected to increase from ₹30,000 crore in FY26 to ₹45,000-46,000 crore in FY27, supporting capacity ramp-up. - NTPC aims for 60 GW of renewable capacity by FY32 and a total capacity target of 149 GW by 2032 and 244 GW by 2037. - Power generation may experience some moderation due to weather, but industrial and commercial demand expected to grow.

- Adjusted consolidated PAT increased by 3% in Q2 FY26 and 10% in H1 FY26 compared to previous year, indicating steady profit growth. - NTPC standalone adjusted PAT rose 8% in Q2 FY26 and 6% in H1 FY26 versus prior period. - Capex is expected to rise, with ₹30,000 crore planned for FY26 at NTPC Green level, increasing to ₹45,000-46,000 crore in FY27, supporting capacity additions and future earnings. - Capacity additions of approximately 9.8 GW in FY26, 9.6 GW in FY27, and 10.5 GW in FY28 with strong visibility on CODs enabling revenue growth. - Renewable EBITDA margins improved indicating robust profitability in green segment. - Regulated equity grows by 10% YoY, supporting regulated earnings stability. - No plans for tariff-based thermal bidding; focus remains on assured returns from regulated assets. - Overall outlook positive with consistent capacity expansion, operational efficiencies, and growing contribution from renewables enhancing future earnings and EPS.

- NTPC Green Energy Limited (NGEL) incurred ₹6,607 crore capex in H1 FY26, up from ₹4,884 crore in H1 FY25. - NTPC Green plans ₹30,000 crore capex in FY26 and ₹45,000–₹46,000 crore in FY27. - Total estimated capex of ₹7 lakh crore is required to achieve 149 GW capacity target by 2032. - Significant capex expected in H2 FY26 due to capacity additions planned mainly in the second half. - Nuclear power project Mahi Banswara estimated capex: around ₹50,000 crore. - BESS projects: 5 GW co-located with thermal plants (regulated), 5020 MW co-located with solar (non-regulated); tendering underway with awards expected in FY26. - Additional pumped storage plants of 12,670 MW allocated, with preliminary studies underway. - Viability Gap Funding (VGF) of ₹18 lakh per MWh expected for 5000 MWh batteries at thermal plants.

- NTPC has executed a loan agreement amounting to JPY equivalent of US$100 million with CTBC Bank, Tokyo, on July 16, 2025. - Average cost of borrowing during H1 FY26 was 6.11%, improved through refinancing and restructuring of loans. - For FY26, NTPC plans capital expenditure of around ₹30,000 crore at NTPC Green level, financed through debt and equity. - For FY27, capital expenditure is expected to increase further to around ₹45,000–₹46,000 crore at NTPC Green level. - Focus on timely completion of projects with planned capital infusion. - No explicit mention of fresh equity issuance; debt raising via loans and refinancing is ongoing. - Plans for increasing regulated equity tied to capacity additions and project CODs by FY28, implying future capital raising aligned with project needs.

- NTPC has an under-construction capacity of about 33 GW: 17.3 GW coal, 2.18 GW hydro, and 13.9 GW renewable energy (RE). - COD guidance: Approximately 6 GW expected in the current year, and 8 GW each in the next two years. - For thermal capacity ordering: - Around 1.6 GW expected to be awarded in FY26. - Around 2.4 GW planned for FY27. - An additional 800 MW to 1.6 GW may be ordered beyond FY27. - Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS): - 2.3 GW tendered with award expected within FY26. - Total 5 GW BESS co-located with thermal units (regulated) and 5.02 GW with solar projects (non-regulated). - Expected completion within three years from award. - Nuclear project at Mahi Banswara (2,800 MW) with orders for nuclear island and turbine generator packages expected in FY26.