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NTPC LtdQ4 FY25

NTPC Ltd Q4 FY25 Earnings Call Analysis

Revenue, margin, capex, fundraise and order book outlook from management commentary.

Price: 354P/E: 15.8Market Cap: ₹3.8L CrSector: Power

Management growth scorecard

Revenue

Category 3

Margin

Category 3

Fundraise

Yes

Order

N/A

Capex

Yes

2 of 4 growth signals are positive.

Full analysis

Revenue guidance

Category 3
  • NTPC's total income for Q3 FY24 was ₹40,288 crore, slightly lower than ₹42,149 crore in Q3 FY23; 9M FY24 total income is ₹1,21,486 crore versus ₹1,24,685 crore in 9M FY23.
  • NTPC Group generated 315 Billion Units in 9M FY24, a 7% increase YoY; standalone generation rose 5% to 268 Billion Units.
  • Coal production significantly increased by 74% to 25.36 MMT in 9M FY24.
  • Planned capacity additions include 16.8 GW of new thermal capacity by 2032, aiming for 283 GW coal capacity end FY32.
  • Renewable energy targets include 246 GW solar, 46 GW wind, and 52 GW other non-fossil fuel additions, totaling 343 GW, to reach 530 GW RE capacity by 2032.
  • Overall capacity target by FY32 is 838 GW with 412 GW additions (conventional + renewable).
  • Capex planned around INR 22,700 - 26,300 crore annually, funded by 70% debt and 30% equity.
  • Renewable capacity growth expected with 7.8 GW under construction, targeting 15 GW operating by FY26.

Margin guidance

Category 3
  • PAT for Q3 FY24 increased by 2.14% YoY to ₹4,572 crore; 9M PAT up 8.66% to ₹12,523 crore.
  • Group PAT for 9M FY24 rose 21.16% YoY to ₹14,842 crore, driven by subsidiary and JV profits.
  • Adjusted profit for Q3 FY24 was ₹4,468 crore, marginally higher than previous year.
  • Capex planned at ₹22,700 crore for next year and around ₹26,300 crore for FY26, indicating growth investment.
  • Comfortable cash flow projections anticipated to support 30% equity requirements for planned capacity additions.
  • Renewable capacity additions target of ~15 GW by FY26, improving earnings from non-fossil fuel sources.
  • Thermal capacity expansion of 16.8 GW planned to meet rising electricity demand by 2032, supporting stable earnings.
  • Dividend income in 9M FY24 at ₹662 crore; interim dividends totaling Rs.4.50 per share declared, reflecting steady profitability.

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Fundraise plans

Yes
  • NTPC plans to raise funds through a mix of debt and equity in a 70:30 ratio for cost-plus projects.
  • For renewable projects, there is flexibility to go for higher leveraging (more debt) if possible.
  • Management projects comfortable cash flows to meet 30% equity capex requirements for capacity additions.
  • No specific new fundraising amount or timing was detailed, but capex targets include around INR22,700 crores for next year and INR26,300 crores for FY26.
  • The approach aligns with ongoing capacity additions and expansion plans, supporting both conventional and renewable projects.

Order book

  • For FY24, tendering plans include Singrauli 3 (1,600 MW), Sipat 3 (800 MW), and Darlipalli (800 MW) in Q1/Q2.
  • 16.8 GW of coal-based thermal capacity is planned for award over the next 2-3 years; some PPAs already in place (Darlipalli, Singrauli) with more in advanced planning.
  • The company has a pipeline of 11.9 GW renewable projects where bids have been won or letters of award received, with 7.8 GW already under execution.
  • Pumped storage opportunities total approximately 14 GW at various discussion stages; an 8 GW target for pumped storage projects is being pursued.
  • Orders for about 2.5 GW of renewable modules have been placed, out of 7.8 GW under construction.
  • The company expects to add 6-7 GW of capacity yearly, with 3 GW from renewables and 4 GW conventional.

Capex plans

Yes
  • NTPC's standalone capex for FY25 is expected around INR 26,300 crores; for FY24, close to INR 22,700 crores.
  • Funding mix for investments is typically debt-equity 70:30; renewables may have higher leverage.
  • Group CAPEX incurred in 9M FY24 is ₹21,552 crore versus ₹26,058 crore last year.
  • A significant green hydrogen MoU with Maharashtra involves investments up to INR 80,000 crores over 5 years in green hydrogen projects backed by renewables and pumped storage.
  • Thermal capacity addition plans include awarding 16.8 GW capacity soon, in addition to 10 GW already under construction.
  • Renewable projects: 7.8 GW under construction with PPAs; 11.9 GW in pipeline; target to commission ~15 GW renewables by FY26.
  • Coal mining capacity aiming for 50 million tonnes annually in next 3 years to enhance fuel security.
  • Focus on environmental compliance with commissioning FGD systems on entire operational and under-construction capacity in 3 years.

How does NTPC Ltd rank vs peers in Power?

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