Adani Green Energy LtdQ4 FY26
Adani Green Energy Ltd Q4 FY26 Earnings Call Analysis
Revenue, margin, capex, fundraise and order book outlook from management commentary.
Price: ₹1,525P/E: 125.4Market Cap: ₹2.3L CrSector: Power
Management growth scorecard
Revenue
Category 2
Margin
Category 3
Fundraise
Yes
Order
N/A
Capex
Yes
2 of 4 growth signals are positive.
Full analysisRevenue guidance
Category 2- →AGEL contributed to 15% of nationwide new solar capacity and 12% of new wind installations in 2024, indicating strong growth momentum.
- →Energy sales increased by 23% year-on-year to 20 billion units in the first nine months ending December 31, 2024.
- →Revenue from power supply grew 18% year-on-year to INR 6,829 crores, showcasing robust financial performance.
- →EBITDA from power supply rose 18% year-on-year to INR 6,366 crores.
- →Cash profit surged 23% year-on-year to INR 3,630 crores.
- →The company added 3.1 GW of greenfield capacity, a 37% growth, increasing the operational portfolio to 11.6 GW.
- →Target to add approximately 5 GW of new capacity in FY25, with 85% solar and 15% wind.
- →Aiming for 50 GW capacity by 2030.
- →Expect to have about 75% of new solar capacity under long-term PPAs, with the remainder merchant, and 100% wind capacity as merchant.
- →Focused on ramping up capacity and stable, predictable cash flows through a mix of PPAs and merchant contracts.
Margin guidance
Category 3- →AGEL targets adding approximately 5 GW of new capacity in FY25, aiming for strong ramp-up beyond current year.
- →Expected run rate EBITDA for current 11.6 GW capacity is around INR 10,000 crores; with new capacity additions, run rate EBITDA could exceed INR 15,000 crores.
- →Incremental 5 GW capacity addition planned with 85% solar and 15% wind, boosting top-line and operating earnings.
- →Cash profits have increased by 23% YoY to INR 3,630 crores in 9M FY25, reflecting operational excellence and growth.
- →Stable long-term contracts with 85% long-term PPAs ensuring predictable cash flows; 15% merchant and C&I exposure enhances returns.
- →Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) integration to support grid stability and open new revenue streams.
- →Management confirms no need for new equity and strong capital management to sustain growth and profitability.
- →Overall outlook is robust with targeted capacity growth, improving EBITDA, and disciplined execution supporting earnings growth trajectory.
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Fundraise plans
Yes- →No new equity investment is needed by Adani Green Energy Limited (AGEL); the company is fully funded to deliver on its ambitions.
- →Discussions are ongoing with domestic lenders for refinancing existing debt, and AGEL is confident about concluding these plans soon.
- →Backup options for short-term debt include certain rollover options, private placements of bonds, and international market options if domestic refinancing does not complete in time.
- →AGEL maintains a strong capital management program and has access to a $3.4 billion Emerald facility to fund refinancing and new projects.
- →Current net debt is around INR 57,000 crores, with operational debt at INR 42,000 to 45,000 crores.
- →Management emphasized no gaps or delays in financing despite recent market challenges.
Order book
- →The call transcript does not explicitly state the exact value or MW capacity of the current orderbook or pending orders for Adani Green Energy Limited (AGEL).
- →However, the company is targeting to add approximately 5 GW of new capacity in the current fiscal year, with 4.3 GW expected in the last quarter and some capacity commissioning expected shortly after year-end.
- →The company is actively working on large projects like the Khavda project, progressing rapidly with over 12,000 people onsite.
- →AGEL's business development includes expanding its PPA pipeline, with recent successes in tenders with NHPC, UP, and NTPC.
- →The company expects a strong capacity ramp-up next year and has started early planning and material ordering for future projects, indicating a solid project pipeline.
- →Battery energy storage system projects are also part of their evolving order pipeline and future business strategy.
Capex plans
Yes- →Targeting to add approximately 5 GW of new renewable capacity in the current fiscal year, with 4.3 GW expected by Q4 and the balance shortly after fiscal year-end.
- →Continuing strong ramp-up in capacity addition for next year, with early planning, material ordering, and engineering design already underway.
- →Capex for solar projects (with bifacial modules and trackers) is around INR 4.5 crores per MW; wind projects cost about INR 6.5 crores per MW (5.2 MW turbines).
- →Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) capex expected between INR 1.3 to INR 1.4 crores per MWh, focusing on LFP battery technology for utility-scale projects.
- →Emphasis on large-scale deployment of BESS to complement solar, wind, and pumped storage hydro projects for grid integration.
- →Investments focused on expanding PPA pipelines, digitalization initiatives, and robust capital management.
- →Debt-equity ratio for financing new capacity is typically 75:25, with net debt around INR 57,000 crores currently.
How does Adani Green Energy Ltd rank vs peers in Power?
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