Avenue Super.Q1 FY21

Avenue Super. Q1 FY21 Earnings Call Analysis

Revenue, margin, capex, fundraise and order book outlook from management commentary.

Price: ₹3,175P/E: 66.5Market Cap: ₹2.1L CrSector: Retailing

Management growth scorecard

Revenue

Category 3

Margin

Category 3

Fundraise

Yes

Order

N/A

Capex

Yes

2 of 4 growth signals are positive.

Full analysis

Revenue guidance

Category 3
  • DMart Ready demand has increased 5x in 12 months, indicating strong growth potential, though current revenue growth is about 2.5x (Page 49).
  • The e-commerce segment, particularly DMart Ready, is expanding cautiously with multi-city plans underway but details to be shared later (Pages 42, 49).
  • Store expansion will be muted in FY2021 due to COVID-19 and monsoon impacts but expected to rebound with approximately 40 store openings annually in coming years (Page 7).
  • Larger stores enable higher margins and better general merchandise assortment but incur higher initial costs (Pages 4, 7).
  • Future revenue growth is expected mainly from same-store sales growth driven by ticket size and frequency improvements, and selective category expansion with focus on relevance (Pages 44, 47, 38).
  • The company intends to maintain a gross margin around 15%-16% with aggressive pricing as a moat for sustainable growth (Page 34).

See what Avenue Super. management said on margin guidance — free account, 30 seconds.

Fundraise plans

Yes
  • No indication of any current or future fundraising through debt or equity was mentioned in the call.
  • Neville Noronha emphasized that the company is fairly well capitalized, especially after the January fundraise.
  • They are focused on accelerating store acquisitions using existing capital and are confident in their financial position.
  • There was no discussion or plan revealed about raising additional capital or altering the capital structure.
  • The company prefers to continue with its current business strategy and capital deployment without distraction from fundraising.
  • Overall, the view is to use internal resources efficiently rather than seek new debt or equity funding in the near term.

See what Avenue Super. management said on order book — free account, 30 seconds.

Capex plans

Yes
  • DMart is currently in an incubation period for "DMart Ready" stores; capex is mainly for leased stores involving small civil works, lighting, and air conditioning, with a 20%-25% higher per square foot cost than regular DMart stores.
  • The company is accelerating real estate acquisitions for new stores despite the pandemic-related delays in construction; store additions are continuing with a focus on prime real estate.
  • Larger stores are favored because incremental construction cost is proportionally lower and provide longer-term revenue growth opportunities.
  • Supply chain investment is ongoing, focusing on warehouses and logistics designed for evolving store formats, with cost savings expected in basis points.
  • The company postpones cash and carry and focuses on brick-and-mortar expansion and possible e-commerce opportunities.
  • Operating leverage from distribution centers and warehouses will build slowly over 10-15 years due to incremental capacity expansion.
  • Capex on new stores post-COVID is influenced by prime location requirements; real estate prices are softer but deals are progressing faster.

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