Federal-Mogul Goetze (India) LtdQ2 FY21Auto Components

Federal-Mogul Goetze (India) Ltd

Q2 FY21 Earnings Call Analysis

Management growth scorecard

Revenue

Category 3

Margin

Category 3

Fundraise

N/A

Order

Yes

Capex

Yes

2 of 4 growth signals are positive.

Revenue guidance

Category 3

→The company expects top-line (revenue) growth of 15% to 20% for the current financial year, contingent on COVID-19 conditions and market stability.
→Volume growth is targeted at 15% to 20%, aligned with market expansion and capacity enhancements.
→Capacity expansion of around 8% to 9% is underway, including significant CAPEX of approximately Rs. 80-90 crore focused on Patiala and Bangalore facilities for Pistons and Piston Rings.
→Export business is being expanded with capacity added to cater to OEMs supplying export markets.
→The two-wheeler segment order book is stable for the next 3-4 years, with some new customers added recently in exports.
→Electrification is seen as a long-term transition; however, the company expects continued participation in hybrid and mild hybrid vehicles, supporting future growth.
→Working capital reduction and operational productivity improvements are expected to support volume and margin growth.

Category 3

→Company targets 15%-20% top-line growth in FY21-22, contingent on COVID situation and market stability.
→EBITDA margin aimed at 15%-16%, similar to FY18-19 levels, though challenged by rising material costs with recovery expected next year.
→Material cost increase of 30%-35% expected to be 80%-90% recoverable over a year, not fully in the current year.
→Q1 FY22 showed operational EBITDA of 11%, down from 16% in previous quarter due to COVID-induced shutdowns and material cost lag.
→Earnings per share (EPS) improving with volume growth and operational profitability, with positive profit before tax and net profit (PAT).
→Cash flow generation strong, though CAPEX of Rs. 70-80 crore planned for capacity expansion and export growth, affecting net cash flow temporarily.
→Dividend payments deferred in short term due to CAPEX and working capital needs; policy under review for longer term.
→Expansion in capacity, especially for exports and OEMs, expected to contribute to future growth.

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→The company currently has no plans for new fundraising through debt or equity.
→They have sufficient cash on hand (~₹142 crores as of latest quarter) to meet upcoming CAPEX and working capital requirements.
→For FY21-22, the focus is on deploying cash for growth opportunities and CAPEX of about ₹80-90 crores.
→Dividend payments are under review and likely deferred due to growth investments and COVID-related uncertainties.
→The company aims to maintain cautious cash reserves considering COVID risks and global uncertainties.
→They are prioritizing working capital reduction and fixed cost reduction to sustain operations without needing fresh capital.
→Longer-term dividend strategies will be reconsidered once cash requirements stabilize.

Yes

→The order book for two-wheelers is expected to remain flat or slightly decline by 2-3% over the next 3-4 years due to market trends shifting towards electric vehicles.
→The company has added two new customers in the two-wheeler export segment recently.
→The export order book includes 2.5 to 3 liter pickup trucks and other vehicle categories.
→Supplies are made both directly to OEM export customers and through intercompany shipments (e.g., units in Thailand).
→Capacity expansion is planned to cater for export growth.
→The management expects stable demand for two-wheelers for at least the next three years with no anticipated volume drops.
→Overall capacity is fungible across various product categories (two-wheelers, three-wheelers, passenger cars, commercial vehicles, tractors) to adjust to market demand and regulatory changes.

Yes

→The company has a CAPEX plan of about Rs. 70-90 crore for the current year.
→CAPEX is mainly focused on increasing capacity in Patiala and Bangalore facilities for Pistons and Piston Rings.
→The investment supports growth opportunities of 15% to 20% top-line increase expected for the year.
→CAPEX also aims at accommodating increased export business and qualifying for global OEM supply.
→The company is adding operational productivity and rearranging global footprint, particularly with Euro-VI norms and moving some global production to India.
→No plans to diversify product portfolio beyond Pistons, Piston Rings, Valve Seats, and Guides.
→The company is reviewing dividend policy but prioritizes cash preservation for CAPEX and market uncertainties, especially due to COVID risks.
→The CAPEX will be spent largely in LV (light vehicles) and commercial vehicle segments, including customers like Ford Puma.

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1Federal-Mogul Goetze (India) Ltd

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