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Lodha Developers LtdQ3 FY23

Lodha Developers Ltd Q3 FY23 Earnings Call Analysis

Revenue, margin, capex, fundraise and order book outlook from management commentary.

Price: 947P/E: 24.8Market Cap: ₹84.9K CrSector: Realty

Management growth scorecard

Revenue

Category 2

Margin

Category 3

Fundraise

N/A

Order

Yes

Capex

Yes

2 of 4 growth signals are positive.

Full analysis

Revenue guidance

Category 2
  • Targeting 20% CAGR in presales and about 20% ROE for steady, predictable high growth.
  • Eastern Suburbs aiming for 40%-50% presales growth in FY '24 (~INR 1,700-1,800 crores), already at INR 800 crores in H1.
  • Plan to add 7-9 new launches over next 6 months (~8 million sq ft worth INR 12,000 crores).
  • Expansion to 5-6 projects in Eastern Suburbs by year-end across multiple locations.
  • Pune presales expected to cross INR 2,000 crores in FY '24; aim to be top 3 developer by year-end.
  • Bangalore launches planned to start November; expect growth trajectory similar to Pune.
  • Continued price growth of 6%-7% annually with focus on affordability.
  • Expect meaningful growth in extended Eastern Suburbs sales (expected to grow beyond last year's INR 23 billion).
  • Market share in Mumbai expected to grow with new locations and supply additions.
  • Overall, robust pipeline and strong business development underpin growth outlook.

Margin guidance

Category 3
  • Macrotech Developers targets a steady 20% CAGR in presales and about 20% Return on Equity (ROE), driving predictable growth.
  • Adjusted EBITDA margins stood strong around 30% in the recent quarter, indicating robust profitability.
  • ROEs on underlying pro forma earnings are moving towards the high teens, with expectations to improve further.
  • The company plans to sustain modest price growth (6-7% annually), maintaining strong affordability to support long-term sales.
  • Revenue recognition changes will better reflect business performance by FY '27, improving earnings visibility.
  • Business development pipeline is strong with expected presales growth of 40-50% YoY in new markets like Pune, plus new launches in Bangalore.
  • Net debt reduction is ongoing, supporting financial health and potential to increase shareholder returns (via dividends or other means).
  • Overall, Macrotech maintains confidence in steady earnings and operating profit growth driven by strong demand and disciplined execution.

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Fundraise plans

  • The company expects net debt reduction in the second half of the year to be higher, helped by INR550 crores expected from UK operations.
  • There is ongoing assessment of business development opportunities, which could lead to variations in net debt if capital deployment is required.
  • The company has paid out its first dividend last year and intends to increase returns to shareholders over time, possibly through dividends or other means.
  • There is no explicit mention of any new fundraising through debt or equity planned currently.
  • The company’s strategy involves managing net debt carefully while exploring opportunities to deploy surplus cash flow effectively, considered by the Board as appropriate.

Order book

Yes
  • The transcript does not explicitly mention a formal "order book" or "pending orders" figure.
  • However, the company has delivered about 80% of its annual business development guidance with INR143 billion out of INR175 billion targeted, indicating a strong pipeline.
  • The Eastern Suburbs region is experiencing accelerated growth with plans to add 2-3 projects annually per their supermarket strategy.
  • There are ongoing transactions such as land sales and the sale of a subsidiary (New Cold) worth INR1.5 billion expected to close soon.
  • The pipeline for Joint Development Agreements (JDA) and land acquisitions remains healthy and larger than 18 months ago, giving flexibility to be selective.
  • The company expects meaningful growth in sales and revenue in extended locations and new markets, supported by a strong new project pipeline.

Capex plans

Yes
  • The company continuously evaluates business development opportunities to deploy capital effectively, implying ongoing or future strategic investments.
  • Debt reduction is prioritized; surplus cash flow may be used for business development or to increase shareholder returns through dividends or other means.
  • The digital infrastructure business (warehousing and industrial parks) is active, including land sales to partners and third parties, signifying capital recycling and reinvestment.
  • Recent divestment of a subsidiary (New Cold, cold chain logistics) for INR1.5 billion, with funds expected this quarter.
  • Land acquisition continues in key areas like South Central Mumbai, indicating ongoing capital investment in new projects.
  • The company aims to expand in Eastern Suburbs with 2-3 new projects annually and increase market share, implying future capex.
  • Launch pipelines for FY24 are strong, largely planned for H2, reflecting upcoming investment in project development and execution.

How does Lodha Developers Ltd rank vs peers in Realty?

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1Lodha Developers Ltd
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