NTPC LtdQ3 FY25
NTPC Ltd Q3 FY25 Earnings Call Analysis
Revenue, margin, capex, fundraise and order book outlook from management commentary.
Price: ₹354P/E: 15.8Market Cap: ₹3.8L CrSector: Power
Management growth scorecard
Revenue
Category 3
Margin
Category 3
Fundraise
Yes
Order
N/A
Capex
Yes
2 of 4 growth signals are positive.
Full analysisRevenue guidance
Category 3- →India's power demand is expected to rise steadily with GDP growth projected between 6.5% to 7%, driven by manufacturing and digital infrastructure expansion.
- →NTPC Group capacity increased nearly 10% to 83,893 MW in H1 FY26, with record capacity addition of 5,359 MW in first seven months of FY26.
- →NTPC is targeting capacity additions of 9,844 MW in FY26, 9,600 MW in FY27, and 10,564 MW in FY28, with a renewable capacity of 8,000 MW in FY28.
- →NGEL's revenue from operations for H1 FY26 rose 19% YoY to ₹1,292 crore, with EBITDA margin improving to 88%.
- →Capital expenditure at NGEL expected to increase from ₹30,000 crore in FY26 to ₹45,000-46,000 crore in FY27, supporting capacity ramp-up.
- →NTPC aims for 60 GW of renewable capacity by FY32 and a total capacity target of 149 GW by 2032 and 244 GW by 2037.
- →Power generation may experience some moderation due to weather, but industrial and commercial demand expected to grow.
Margin guidance
Category 3- →Adjusted consolidated PAT increased by 3% in Q2 FY26 and 10% in H1 FY26 compared to previous year, indicating steady profit growth.
- →NTPC standalone adjusted PAT rose 8% in Q2 FY26 and 6% in H1 FY26 versus prior period.
- →Capex is expected to rise, with ₹30,000 crore planned for FY26 at NTPC Green level, increasing to ₹45,000-46,000 crore in FY27, supporting capacity additions and future earnings.
- →Capacity additions of approximately 9.8 GW in FY26, 9.6 GW in FY27, and 10.5 GW in FY28 with strong visibility on CODs enabling revenue growth.
- →Renewable EBITDA margins improved indicating robust profitability in green segment.
- →Regulated equity grows by 10% YoY, supporting regulated earnings stability.
- →No plans for tariff-based thermal bidding; focus remains on assured returns from regulated assets.
- →Overall outlook positive with consistent capacity expansion, operational efficiencies, and growing contribution from renewables enhancing future earnings and EPS.
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Fundraise plans
Yes- →NTPC has executed a loan agreement amounting to JPY equivalent of US$100 million with CTBC Bank, Tokyo, on July 16, 2025.
- →Average cost of borrowing during H1 FY26 was 6.11%, improved through refinancing and restructuring of loans.
- →For FY26, NTPC plans capital expenditure of around ₹30,000 crore at NTPC Green level, financed through debt and equity.
- →For FY27, capital expenditure is expected to increase further to around ₹45,000–₹46,000 crore at NTPC Green level.
- →Focus on timely completion of projects with planned capital infusion.
- →No explicit mention of fresh equity issuance; debt raising via loans and refinancing is ongoing.
- →Plans for increasing regulated equity tied to capacity additions and project CODs by FY28, implying future capital raising aligned with project needs.
Order book
- →NTPC has an under-construction capacity of about 33 GW: 17.3 GW coal, 2.18 GW hydro, and 13.9 GW renewable energy (RE).
- →COD guidance: Approximately 6 GW expected in the current year, and 8 GW each in the next two years.
- →For thermal capacity ordering:
- → - Around 1.6 GW expected to be awarded in FY26.
- → - Around 2.4 GW planned for FY27.
- → - An additional 800 MW to 1.6 GW may be ordered beyond FY27.
- →Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS):
- → - 2.3 GW tendered with award expected within FY26.
- → - Total 5 GW BESS co-located with thermal units (regulated) and 5.02 GW with solar projects (non-regulated).
- → - Expected completion within three years from award.
- →Nuclear project at Mahi Banswara (2,800 MW) with orders for nuclear island and turbine generator packages expected in FY26.
Capex plans
Yes- →NTPC Green Energy Limited (NGEL) incurred ₹6,607 crore capex in H1 FY26, up from ₹4,884 crore in H1 FY25.
- →NTPC Green plans ₹30,000 crore capex in FY26 and ₹45,000–₹46,000 crore in FY27.
- →Total estimated capex of ₹7 lakh crore is required to achieve 149 GW capacity target by 2032.
- →Significant capex expected in H2 FY26 due to capacity additions planned mainly in the second half.
- →Nuclear power project Mahi Banswara estimated capex: around ₹50,000 crore.
- →BESS projects: 5 GW co-located with thermal plants (regulated), 5020 MW co-located with solar (non-regulated); tendering underway with awards expected in FY26.
- →Additional pumped storage plants of 12,670 MW allocated, with preliminary studies underway.
- →Viability Gap Funding (VGF) of ₹18 lakh per MWh expected for 5000 MWh batteries at thermal plants.
How does NTPC Ltd rank vs peers in Power?
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