Pakka LtdQ2 FY25Paper, Forest & Jute Products

Pakka Ltd

Q2 FY25 Earnings Call Analysis

Management growth scorecard

Revenue

Category 3

Margin

Category 3

Fundraise

Yes

Order

N/A

Capex

Yes

2 of 4 growth signals are positive.

Full analysis

Revenue guidance

Category 3

→Target to produce 500,000 tons per year by 2030, a 20x growth from current ~50,000 tons.
→India facility expected to reach ~100,000 tons by 2027 following a 50,000-ton expansion.
→Guatemala facility planned for ~150,000 tons by 2028, with additional expansion capacity designed.
→Focus on stabilizing operations in India and commissioning barrier coated grades within the next financial year.
→Growth driven by both volume expansion and introduction of new, innovative products (e.g., barrier coated papers, flexible packaging).
→Market expansion through horizontal (new cities) and vertical (increasing share in existing cities) growth, including gaining new customer segments such as QSRs, religious institutions, institutional catering, and B2C via Q-commerce.
→Plans ongoing for product innovation in food service like clamshells, delivery containers, beverage cups, and cutlery.
→Expect delays in some projections but remain confident to achieve significant revenue growth by FY27-FY28.

Margin guidance

Category 3

→The company aims for a 20x growth by 2030, targeting 500,000 tons of material production per year, leading to approximately $1 billion in revenue (Page 7, 14:47).
→Current production is about 50,000 tons; with expansions in India (targeting 100,000 tons by 2027) and Guatemala (150,000 tons by 2028), scaling is underway (Page 46, 1:42:53).
→Revenue growth is expected from stabilizing India operations, expanding production capacity, and launching new products such as barrier-coated papers and delivery containers (Page 46, 1:42:53; Page 31, 1:13:25).
→There have been delays in hitting previous revenue projections, with a lag of approximately two years anticipated to catch up (Page 45, 1:39:49).
→Margin improvement is expected through product innovation and scale; emphasis on achieving higher margins than current paper business (Page 54, 1:57:49).
→Efficiency and cost reduction efforts are ongoing to enhance EBITDA (Page 51, 1:52:59).
→New product launches like clamshells, delivery containers, beverage cups, and cutlery are projected to drive top-line and profit growth (Page 13, 1:12:19).

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Fundraise plans

Yes

→The company is actively working on fundraising for the flexible packaging facility, planned as a three-stage project.
→They have partnered with Rothschild to support equity raise efforts, shifting from Nomura due to private equity market conditions.
→Currently, there is $25 million under LOI from a Panama-based investment fund, and another $12 million in process from private equity funds in Guatemala.
→These funds, along with senior debt, aim to close $50 million for the first stage of the project, targeting a live date by June 2026.
→Financing traction is slower than hoped but progressing.
→For the Jagrati project, there is ongoing financial assessment with a peak debt level expected around INR 600 crores by FY27.
→Future equity dilution is expected primarily in stages 2 and 3 of the flexible packaging project, with initial stages having limited dilution.
→The overall approach balances debt and equity focusing on minimizing dilution and securing operational liquidity.

Order book

- There is very clear visibility for about 250,000 tons of concrete orders—considered "steel on the ground" level certainty. - An additional 250,000 tons is aspirational ("pie in the sky"), with the team actively working toward securing it. - The overall target is 500,000 tons, combining concrete and aspirational orders. - Focus remains on making change at scale and expanding the order book. - Ongoing discussions with large FMCG players like Nestle, ITC, and others to expand order volume. - The company is exploring new sites and investments to support order fulfillment and growth. (Reference: Page 47)

Capex plans

Yes

→Ongoing investment in flexible packaging with a focus on building a barrier coated paper facility planned to go live in 2028 (around $265 million).
→Current stage involves asset-light approach with outsourced sites and pilot coating system investments for R&D.
→Fresh investment contingent on the flexible packaging segment becoming large and profitable.
→Equity raise underway with Rothschild to support funding; $25 million LOI from Panama-based investment fund and $12 million in process from Guatemalan private equity.
→Total peak debt level expected around ₹600 crores (term loans + working capital).
→Jagrati project progressing post-financial closure, targeting commissioning within the current financial year.
→Future funding stages may involve more pure equity and potential dilution.
→Continued focus on balancing operational liquidity with long-term capital investments based on ROI and strategic priorities.

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