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Shri Keshav Cements & Infra LtdQ3 FY24

Shri Keshav Cements & Infra Ltd Q3 FY24 Earnings Call Analysis

Revenue, margin, capex, fundraise and order book outlook from management commentary.

Price: 144Market Cap: ₹277 CrSector: Cement & Cement Products

Management growth scorecard

Revenue

Category 2

Margin

Category 1

Fundraise

N/A

Order

N/A

Capex

Yes

2 of 3 growth signals are positive.

Full analysis

Revenue guidance

Category 2
  • Cement dispatches increased by around 10%-11% in H1 FY '25 compared to H1 FY '24 despite price decline.
  • EBITDA for FY '26 expected around Rs. 60-65 crores assuming cement price at Rs. 3,300 per ton.
  • Full impact of new kiln and capacity expansion expected from FY '26 onwards, targeting 70%+ capacity utilization by FY '28.
  • Projected EBITDA for FY '26: Rs. 80-90 crores; for FY '27: Rs. 120-150 crores based on expected price recovery and capacity ramp-up.
  • Cement price expected to stabilize and potentially rise from Q4 FY '25, supporting EBITDA margin improvement to 30-35%.
  • Sales volume growth supported by expanded sales force and dealer network, capturing higher market share.
  • Demand growth expected driven by government infrastructure spending, affordable rural housing, and schemes like Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana.
  • Solar vertical provides stable EBITDA support, aiding overall cash flow during weak cement pricing periods.

Margin guidance

Category 1
  • FY '26 EBITDA is projected around ₹60-65 crores assuming cement prices at ₹3,300; lower than earlier guidance due to price fall.
  • New kiln and CAPEX expected to reduce fuel costs, improve production and operating leverage.
  • EBITDA guidance for FY '26 remains ₹80-90 crores and for FY '27 around ₹120-150 crores, contingent on cement price recovery.
  • Analysts expect cement price rebound to ₹3,700-3,800 by Q4 FY '25, possibly increasing EBITDA margins back up to 30-35%.
  • Solar business provides stable EBITDA (~₹14 crores in H1 FY '25), cushioning against cement price volatility.
  • Carry-forward tax losses mean company will pay minimum alternate tax (MAT) around 15% for next 4-5 years, reducing tax burden.
  • Debt repayment projected at ₹40-42 crores/year, with plans to reduce overall leverage once cash flows improve.

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Fundraise plans

  • As per the call, the company currently has outstanding debt of around ₹223 crores (down from ₹235 crores as of September).
  • The latest debt was taken in 2023 for the ongoing CAPEX, with repayment scheduled to begin from October 2025.
  • The management plans to continue servicing the debt as per the repayment schedule and aims to reduce debt through prepayment once sufficient cash flows are generated.
  • There is no explicit mention of new debt or equity fundraising in the immediate future during the call.
  • The company is focusing on completing capacity expansion and stabilizing operations before any further financial moves.
  • The management is open to strategic opportunities that might enhance shareholder value, but no direct indication of new fundraising was provided.

Order book

The document does not provide specific information on the current or expected order book or pending orders for Shri Keshav Cements & Infra Limited. The discussion primarily focuses on: - Production capacity, commissioning delays, and increase in dispatch volumes. - Market pricing dynamics and EBITDA guidance. - Expansion plans and capacities. - Sales force ramp-up and market demand expectations. - No explicit mention or quantification of order book or pending orders is available in the provided pages. Hence, details on order book or pending orders are not disclosed in the transcript of this earnings call.

Capex plans

Yes
  • Completed new cement plant with 1 million tons capacity; fully commissioned pending power supply upgrade from 33 kV to 110 kV (expected soon).
  • Future plan to increase cement capacity from 1 million to 1.8 million tons by adding crushing and grinding equipment; estimated additional CAPEX around Rs. 80-100 crores.
  • Existing kiln capacity supports 1.8 million tons, no need to replace kiln or cooler for expansion.
  • Incremental revenues from new capacity expected from Q4 FY '25; full year impact in FY '26.
  • Debt repayment for recent CAPEX begins October 2025; overall debt expected to reduce with prepayments as profits and cash flows improve.
  • Possibility of "white labeling" capacity utilization before full internal use.
  • Solar vertical expansion ongoing, contributing stable cash flow; no specific new capex mentioned for solar beyond current 40 MW capacity.

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