Alpex Solar LtdQ1 FY27
Alpex Solar Ltd Q1 FY27 Earnings Call Analysis
Revenue, margin, capex, fundraise and order book outlook from management commentary.
Price: ₹861P/E: 9.9Market Cap: ₹2.0K CrSector: Electrical Equipment
Management growth scorecard
Revenue
Category 1
Margin
Category 3
Fundraise
N/A
Order
Yes
Capex
Yes
3 of 4 growth signals are positive.
Full analysisRevenue guidance
Category 1- →FY '27: Expect around 1 GW of solar cell sales in H2, generating approximately Rs. 1,700 crore revenue from cells alone.
- →FY '28: With full capacity of 2.2 GW solar cells, projected revenue from cells around Rs. 4,000 crore; module revenue is additional.
- →Market demand: India needs 65-70 GW of solar panels annually, expanding at 8%-9% annually; strong demand outlook for cells and modules.
- →Cell EBITDA margins expected to remain at 35%-40%, PAT at 20%-25% for at least one year.
- →Plans to expand wafer and ingot manufacturing capacity to 5 GW by FY '30, with production likely starting after solar cell operations stabilize.
- →Cell capacity utilization expected around 95%-96%; module utilization around 65%-70%.
- →The company aims to maintain competitive edge and expand capacity aligned with market demand and policy support.
Margin guidance
Category 3- →EBITDA margins for the cell business are expected to be around 35%-40%, with PAT margins at 20%-25% for at least the next year; some decline might occur by the following year. (Page 15)
- →Full capacity of the 2.2 GW TOPCon cell line will be operational in FY '28, potentially generating revenues of around Rs. 4,000 crore from solar cells alone. (Page 7)
- →The company recently closed FY '26 with revenue over Rs. 2,200 crore and PAT of Rs. 201 crore, showing significant growth and improved margins (EBITDA 14.7%, PAT 9%). (Page 4)
- →Cell manufacturing plant is expected to yield high efficiencies (~26.5%), supporting margin expansion.
- →The company aims to maintain strong margins despite increasing competition in modules, focusing on cell manufacturing for better profitability. (Pages 6-7, 15)
- →Conservative depreciation over 5 years assumes at least 7 years operational life of the cell plant, indicating long-term asset utilization. (Page 9)
Fundraise plans
- →The company does not intend to take on significant new debt going forward.
- →Financial closure for the cell manufacturing project has been completed innovatively.
- →Current total debt related to the cell line is around Rs. 341-360 crores.
- →There is no explicit mention of upcoming equity fundraising or new debt issuance in the provided text.
- →The company is focusing on managing existing debt efficiently and avoiding excessive borrowing.
Order book
Yes- →For Kusum tenders, Alpex Solar has already received orders worth Rs. 350 crores which are currently being executed.
- →Last year's Kusum revenue was Rs. 223 crores; the target for the current year was Rs. 500 crores, and they expect to surpass it once new tenders commence.
- →The company highlighted that tenders related to Kusum are expected soon as the new policy has been announced.
- →No specific details about total order book beyond Kusum were given, but ongoing execution and optimism about upcoming tenders were expressed.
Capex plans
Yes- →Alpex Solar has recently spent approximately Rs. 890 crore on the 2.2 gigawatt TOPCon solar cell manufacturing facility, which is about to commence production.
- →There are plans to expand aluminum frame manufacturing capacity to 18,000 tons per annum soon.
- →The company targets a long-term solar glass, wafer, and ingot manufacturing capacity of 5 gigawatts by FY '30, though no immediate plans to increase module capacity beyond the current 3.6 gigawatts until demand warrants.
- →Financial closure for the cell line project has been innovatively structured, keeping peak debt low (around Rs. 350-360 crore).
- →Future decisions on expanding module capacity will be made around FY '27-'28 based on market demand.
- →The company is investing in advanced, competitive Generation 3 TOPCon cell technology to maintain margins and market position.
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Margin guidance
Category 3- →EBITDA margins for the cell business are expected to be around 35%-40%, with PAT margins at 20%-25% for at least the next year; some decline might occur by the following year. (Page 15)
- →Full capacity of the 2.2 GW TOPCon cell line will be operational in FY '28, potentially generating revenues of around Rs. 4,000 crore from solar cells alone. (Page 7)
- →The company recently closed FY '26 with revenue over Rs. 2,200 crore and PAT of Rs. 201 crore, showing significant growth and improved margins (EBITDA 14.7%, PAT 9%). (Page 4)
- →Cell manufacturing plant is expected to yield high efficiencies (~26.5%), supporting margin expansion.
- →The company aims to maintain strong margins despite increasing competition in modules, focusing on cell manufacturing for better profitability. (Pages 6-7, 15)
- →Conservative depreciation over 5 years assumes at least 7 years operational life of the cell plant, indicating long-term asset utilization. (Page 9)
Order book
Yes- →For Kusum tenders, Alpex Solar has already received orders worth Rs. 350 crores which are currently being executed.
- →Last year's Kusum revenue was Rs. 223 crores; the target for the current year was Rs. 500 crores, and they expect to surpass it once new tenders commence.
- →The company highlighted that tenders related to Kusum are expected soon as the new policy has been announced.
- →No specific details about total order book beyond Kusum were given, but ongoing execution and optimism about upcoming tenders were expressed.
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