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Inox Green Energy Services LtdQ2 FY23

Inox Green Energy Services Ltd Q2 FY23 Earnings Call Analysis

Revenue, margin, capex, fundraise and order book outlook from management commentary.

Price: 198P/E: 89.0Market Cap: ₹7.1K CrSector: Commercial Services & Supplies

Management growth scorecard

Revenue

Category 2

Margin

Category 3

Fundraise

Yes

Order

Yes

Capex

Yes

3 of 5 growth signals are positive.

Full analysis

Revenue guidance

Category 2
  • INOX Green Energy expects to add 1,500 MWs organically over FY24 to FY26.
  • They plan to add around 1,000 MWs annually, a mix of organic and inorganic growth.
  • The company is targeting a fleet size of approximately 3.8 GW by end of FY24.
  • INOX Wind (parent company) is targeting to execute at least 500 MW of orders per annum from FY24 onwards, which will flow to INOX Green.
  • Inorganic growth includes acquiring portfolios from the 10 GW fragmented market of small O&M players, with several acquisition talks ongoing.
  • Recent acquisition of I-Fox added over 250 MW to the fleet, performing better than expectations.
  • The overall wind capacity additions in India are expected to be around 100 GW in the next 8-10 years, providing a large market opportunity.
  • The company foresees increasing profitability with operating leverage and built-in 5% annual price escalations in O&M contracts.

Margin guidance

Category 3
  • INOX Green aims to double its O&M portfolio to 6 GW from 3.1 GW at Q1 FY24 end via organic and inorganic growth.
  • Organic addition expected: 1,500 MW during FY24 to FY26 (approx. 500 MW per year).
  • Addition includes 250 MW acquired through controlling stake in I-Fox Windtechnik.
  • EBITDA expected to rise with portfolio doubling; forecasted EBITDA could reach ~INR 250-275 crore by FY26 (from ~INR 97 crore at 2,800 MW).
  • EBIT margins steady around 50%, supported by built-in 5% YoY escalation in contracts and operating leverage from higher MWs.
  • Expected net profitability improvement from FY26 onward, as accumulated losses (~INR 600 crore) get offset by operational profits.
  • Asset sale (Nani Virani) expected to help become net debt free and improve profit conversion.
  • The business model is asset-lite with strong free cash flow and focused on annuity-like revenue streams.

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Fundraise plans

Yes
  • No specific guidance or announcement regarding new fundraising through debt or equity was made in the Q1 FY24 earnings call.
  • The company mentioned converting long-term money for promoter backing to avoid taking capital back from INOX Green, emphasizing an asset-lite, free cash flow business model.
  • Focus is on growing the O&M business organically and through acquisitions rather than raising fresh capital.
  • The net debt situation was clarified, showing a reduction from around INR 300 crores to approximately INR 260 crores after receivables and warrant proceeds.
  • The company indicated it is liquidating its last generating asset and does not plan to add new generating assets requiring capex.
  • Overall, the strategy highlights sustaining free cash flow and annuity-based growth rather than fresh fundraising.

Order book

Yes
  • As of Q1 FY24, INOX Green Energy’s portfolio was approximately 3.1 GW, expected to reach around 3.8 GW by end of FY24 through organic and inorganic additions.
  • The company aims to add 1,000 MW per year over the next three years (FY24-FY26), totaling about 3,000 MW incrementally.
  • Of this, 1,500 MW is expected organically from INOX Wind during FY24 to FY26.
  • Inorganic growth targets include acquiring up to 1,500 MW from fragmented small O&M players managing about 10 GW of distressed OEM wind fleets.
  • INOX Green has already acquired a controlling stake (51%) in I-Fox Windtechnik, adding 250+ MW to the fleet as of Q4 FY23.
  • The company is in talks with multiple players and expects potential large deals that could accelerate acquisitions beyond the stated targets.
  • Nani Virani asset sale (~50 MW) is expected to conclude soon, which will help become net debt-free.

Capex plans

Yes
  • INOX Green Energy Services Limited operates primarily as a free cash flow, asset-light O&M business.
  • The company does not intend to allocate capital to generating assets going forward; instead, it is liquidating its last asset sold to Adani.
  • Capital expenditure is minimal, limited to about INR 1 crore for tools.
  • Any new common infrastructure CapEx is undertaken by Resco, which acts as a trustee of that asset; INOX Green will be the O&M service provider for those assets.
  • The focus remains on organic and inorganic growth via acquisitions rather than capital-intensive asset additions.
  • The business model is oriented towards generating annuity-like returns with very limited capital investments.

How does Inox Green Energy Services Ltd rank vs peers in Commercial Services & Supplies?

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1Inox Green Energy Services Ltd
Rev 2Mar 3

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