Adani Energy Solutions LtdQ3 FY24
Adani Energy Solutions Ltd Q3 FY24 Earnings Call Analysis
Revenue, margin, capex, fundraise and order book outlook from management commentary.
Price: ₹1,539P/E: 70.6Market Cap: ₹1.6L CrSector: Power
Management growth scorecard
Revenue
Category 2
Margin
Category 3
Fundraise
Yes
Order
Yes
Capex
Yes
3 of 5 growth signals are positive.
Full analysisRevenue guidance
Category 2- →Smart Metering: Expect to add 30-35 lakh meters in the next six months, reaching 40-45 lakh meters by FY25-end; target to deploy about 70 lakh meters from awarded contracts in FY26, plus an additional 30 lakh from new contracts.
- →Transmission: Current projects under construction worth ~Rs 31,000 crore with EBITDA of ~Rs 4,200 crore expected to commission over next 2 years; additional Rs 15,000 crore projects planned, potentially adding Rs 1,600-1,700 crore EBITDA.
- →Transmission Bidding: Rs 85,000 crore transmission bid pipeline over next 6 months; another Rs 1 lakh crore expected over next 1-1.5 years.
- →C&I Business: Targeting 700-1,000 crore units in a couple of years with ~Rs 150 crore EBITDA; discussions underway with large customers like data centers.
- →Overall EBITDA Growth: Expected to exceed 15%, potentially over 20% considering ongoing project execution and capex-driven growth.
Margin guidance
Category 3- →AESL projects EBITDA growth to exceed 15%, supported by strong ongoing and planned capex.
- →Capex deployment accelerated: Rs 4,400 crore in H1 FY25, 1.7x of last year, locking in future profitability.
- →Transmission projects under construction (~Rs 31,000 crore) expected to contribute ~Rs 4,200 crore EBITDA within two years, with additional Rs 15,000 crore projects expected, adding ~Rs 1,600-1,700 crore EBITDA.
- →Distribution business capex of Rs 1,700-1,800 crore annually leading to Rs 500 crore regulated equity addition yearly, supporting earnings growth.
- →Smart meter installations ramping up to ~40-42 lakh meters this year, enhancing future revenue streams.
- →C&I Power Solutions business expected to contribute Rs 150 crore annualized EBITDA soon, with discussions ongoing with major clients.
- →Overall, strong capex-led growth trajectory with increasing operational efficiency and expanding asset base to drive earnings and EPS growth.
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Fundraise plans
Yes- →AESL raised equity of Rs 8,300 crore through a QIP recently, which has fully funded current projects under construction.
- →No immediate equity fundraising planned post QIP as current projects and associated debt funding are fully tied up.
- →Future project funding will continue with a 70:30 debt-to-equity mix.
- →Debt financing options remain open and include bank financing, dollar bonds, and domestic bonds, to be evaluated as needed.
- →Regarding an existing bond maturing in August 2026, AESL plans to approach the market for refinancing at the appropriate time.
- →No specific timeline for new fundraises mentioned; funding strategy based on prudent investment decisions and project needs.
Order book
Yes- →Next six months transmission bidding pipeline: ~Rs 85,000 crore capex of transmission projects.
- →Includes two HVDC projects (one Rajasthan and one Khavda) expected in the second half.
- →Next 12-18 months: Additional ~Rs 1 lakh crore of transmission capex to come under bidding.
- →Company expects to maintain or increase market share, targeting Rs 15,000 crore to Rs 20,000 crore worth of new projects in the next six months.
- →Current regulated equity in transmission is about Rs 3,400 crore; Mumbai HVDC project (~Rs 2,000 crore regulated equity) to be added on commissioning.
- →Annual capex in distribution (AEML) is around Rs 1,700 to Rs 1,800 crore, adding about Rs 500 crore regulated equity annually.
- →Smart metering projects ongoing, with 30-35 lakh meters targeted for deployment in the next six months.
- →Smart meter installation expected to reach 40-42 lakh meters by FY25 end, with continued bidding opportunities ahead.
Capex plans
Yes- →Current capex deployment is strong, with Rs 3,000 crore deployed in the recent quarter, 2.5 times higher than the previous year.
- →Total capex in the first half of the year is Rs 4,400 crore, 1.7 times last year's first half.
- →Expected capex next year is about Rs 10,000 crore, split among transmission, distribution, and smart metering segments.
- →Transmission projects under construction amount to ~Rs 31,000 crore, with an additional Rs 15,000 crore expected to be added soon, totaling ~Rs 45,000 crore.
- →Smart meter installations are ramping up, with plans to install 30-35 lakh meters in the next six months and reach 40-42 lakh by FY25-end.
- →Annual capex for AEML is around Rs 1,700-1,800 crore for distribution and transmission investments.
- →Project debt funding is maintained at about 70% debt and 30% equity ratio.
- →C&I power solutions vertical is incubated as a new business line with expected contributions soon.
How does Adani Energy Solutions Ltd rank vs peers in Power?
Pro feature1Adani Energy Solutions Ltd
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