M M Forgings LtdQ1 FY22Auto Components

M M Forgings Ltd

Q1 FY22 Earnings Call Analysis

Management growth scorecard

Revenue

Category 1

Margin

Category 3

Fundraise

Yes

Order

Yes

Capex

Yes

4 of 5 growth signals are positive — a strong management growth story.

Revenue guidance

Category 1

→For FY2023, MM Forgings expects to produce and sell close to 80,000 to 90,000 tons, up from about 62,000-63,000 tons in FY2022 (approx. 30-50% volume growth).
→Projected turnover for FY2023 is about Rs. 1400 Crores, reflecting approximately 30% growth on FY2022 turnover.
→Of the incremental tonnage, 15,000 to 20,000 tons are expected from new product introductions (new products and organic growth split roughly 50:50).
→EBITDA per ton is expected to hover around Rs. 33,000 to Rs. 35,000, close to Q3/Q4 levels in FY2022.
→Management targets reaching 80,000 to 90,000 tons comfortably in the coming year, aiming for steady or growing demand despite inflation and economic uncertainties.
→Expansion plans include ramping new products from Q2 onwards and investing significantly in machining capacity to support growth.

Category 3

→MM Forgings expects to achieve 80,000 to 90,000 tons volume in FY2023, a 30-50% increase over previous year.
→Turnover is projected around ₹1400 Crores for FY2023, implying ~30% growth.
→EBITDA margins expected to be stable around current levels, with EBITDA per ton hovering between ₹33,000 to ₹36,000.
→Growth driven by both organic volume increases and new product introductions (15,000 to 20,000 tons from new products).
→Acquisition of Cafoma expected to add ₹60-80 Crores turnover with EBITDA margins of 20-25%, contributing positively.
→Wage pressures and commodity cost fluctuations acknowledged, but steel prices expected to decline in Q2 2023, potentially improving margins.
→Management targets 80,000 to 90,000 tons production/sales and corresponding earnings growth with no significant margin erosion expected.
→Long-term capex and expansion aimed at sustaining growth through cycles, targeting payback of 5-6 years.

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Yes

→The company plans to invest over ₹300 Crores in capex for the fiscal year 2023.
→Funding for this capex will come from a combination of internal accruals and some additional borrowing.
→Net debt stood at roughly ₹240 Crores as of the end of the previous year.
→The net debt to EBITDA ratio is currently just above 1x, which is considered manageable.
→Even with some additional borrowing and repayments planned, debt levels might rise to 1.5x EBITDA but remain within comfortable limits.
→No mention of equity fundraising was made in the provided transcript.
→The company appears comfortable managing additional debt for growth and capacity expansion without immediate plans for equity raise.

Yes

→There is a significant backlog of orders for Class 8 trucks, particularly in the US market, with waiting periods currently around 10 months.
→The backlog is due to chip shortages and reduced production capacity (from 100 to 80 units), causing pent-up demand.
→Orders currently being executed are primarily from earlier bookings; no substantial new orders for Class 8 trucks have been reported in the last six months.
→The company’s order book has been in place over the last two to three years.
→Despite inflation and possible recessionary concerns, demand is expected to remain steady or flat due to this backlog.
→The pent-up demand might help the industry ride through a slowdown.
→The current waiting time and backlog cannot disappear overnight and are expected to sustain demand levels.

Yes

→MM Forgings plans to invest over ₹300 Crores in capex for FY2023.
→Approximately ₹200 Crores of this capex will be dedicated to expanding machining capacity.
→The remaining ₹100 Crores will focus on increasing forging capacity by about 10,000 tons and debottlenecking other areas.
→Capex spending is expected to occur mostly within FY2023.
→The investment is aimed at supporting growth in existing businesses and accommodating newer product launches.
→The company targets achieving 80,000 to 90,000 tons production in FY2023, up from about 60,000 tons in FY2022.
→This expansion includes commissioning a 6,300-ton press in June, expected to add 8,000 to 12,000 tons capacity during the year.
→MM Forgings considers the incremental capex prudent despite the cyclical nature of the commercial vehicle industry, emphasizing readiness to ride the business cycles.

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