Marathon Nextgen Realty LtdQ2 FY25

Marathon Nextgen Realty Ltd Q2 FY25 Earnings Call Analysis

Revenue, margin, capex, fundraise and order book outlook from management commentary.

Price: 369P/E: 12.8Market Cap: ₹2.6K Cr

Management growth scorecard

Revenue

Category 2

Margin

Category 3

Fundraise

Yes

Order

N/A

Capex

Yes

2 of 4 growth signals are positive.

Full analysis

Revenue guidance

Category 2
  • Marathon Nextgen Realty Limited expects strong growth in the coming years with a target of at least 20% annual growth.
  • Historically, the company has grown at 30-35%, and this robust growth trend is expected to continue.
  • They anticipate booking value to grow at a CAGR of around 25-30% over the next three years.
  • The company is focusing on disciplined and dynamic growth backed by high-quality projects in strategic locations.
  • Launch pipeline includes around 5.8 lakh square feet of carpet area over the next four quarters across Bhandup, Monte South, and Nexzone projects.
  • Pricing power remains strong, with expected price hikes at about 5% year-on-year without hampering sales.
  • Market demand across key areas like Panvel, Bhandup, and Mulund is strong, supporting volume growth.

Margin guidance

Category 3
  • Marathon Nextgen Realty Limited expects strong growth to continue with annual growth rates of around 20% and historically achieving 30-35% growth.
  • Booking value is projected to grow at a CAGR of about 25-30% over the next three years.
  • The company aims to maintain robust revenue and profitability supported by premium projects like Monte South and growing demand in locations such as Panvel and Bhandup.
  • Focus on delivering high-quality, timely projects and tapping into attractive micro-markets is expected to bolster earnings.
  • The strategic mix of luxury, mid-segment, and affordable housing supports resilient sales even during downturns, aiding profit stability and growth.
  • Efforts to raise funds (INR 500 crores QIP) and reduce net debt should further strengthen financials and profitability.
  • Price hikes of around 5% year-on-year are expected without hampering sales volume, contributing to margin improvement.

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Fundraise plans

Yes
  • Marathon Nextgen Realty Limited has an enabling resolution to raise funds up to INR 500 crores.
  • Fundraising may be done through Qualified Institutional Placement (QIP) or other possible options.
  • The company is exploring all possibilities regarding the timing and amount of the fundraise.
  • Expected use of funds includes:
  • - Repaying some debt,
  • - Acquiring new assets,
  • - Funding new project acquisitions.
  • Potential equity dilution from the fundraise could be around 15%, based on a market cap of INR 3,000 crores.
  • There is no fixed timeline for the fundraising; the company aims to complete it as soon as possible.
  • The fundraise will be followed by a merger process involving assets from unlisted entities into the listed company.

Order book

  • Total estimated revenue from unsold inventory stands at INR 1,566 crores as of Q1 FY25.
  • Net surplus cash flow from ongoing projects is INR 1,457 crores.
  • Pre-sales booking value from Monte South in Q1 FY25 is approximately INR 121 crores.
  • Launch pipeline in the next four quarters includes around 5.8 lakh square feet of carpet area, expected to generate roughly INR 1,300 crores in booking value.
  • Commercial projects like Marathon Futurex and Millennium have significant unsold inventory, with ongoing monetization strategies.
  • Future commercial launches planned, notably in Monte South, expected to offer about 7 lakh square feet of carpet area in the next 3-4 quarters.
  • Projects being developed at a rapid pace with recent OCs obtained, enhancing saleability and bookings.

Capex plans

Yes
  • Marathon Nextgen Realty Limited is focusing on launching new projects over the next four quarters, including:
  • - Bhandup: ~1.5 lakh sq ft carpet area
  • - Monte South: ~2 lakh sq ft carpet area (including commercial phase planned in next 3-4 quarters)
  • - Nexzone Panvel: ~2.5 lakh sq ft carpet area
  • The company is progressing construction rapidly at Monte South and Nexzone, with Tower A completed (65 floors OC) and Tower B at 45 floors under construction.
  • An enabling resolution is in place to raise up to INR 500 crores through QIP or other routes, with proceeds planned for:
  • - Repayment of debt
  • - Acquisition of new assets and projects (including future SRA projects)
  • - Fundraising expected to lead to approx. 15% equity dilution, subject to timing/amount.
  • Merger of some private company assets/projects into the listed entity is in process to streamline operations.
  • Continued focus on profitable, luxury, and mid-segment real estate projects with strategic location advantages (like proximity to airport and infrastructure).

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