Rico Auto Industries LtdQ1 FY23Auto Components

Rico Auto Industries Ltd

Q1 FY23 Earnings Call Analysis

Management growth scorecard

Revenue

Category 3

Margin

Category 3

Fundraise

Order

Yes

Capex

Yes

2 of 5 growth signals are positive.

Revenue guidance

Category 3

→The company anticipates a revenue growth of around 15% to 16% for FY '24.
→They expect both domestic and export markets to contribute similarly in percentage terms to growth, with domestic numbers being larger in absolute terms.
→Visibility for FY '24 revenue is about INR 2,700 crores, with ambitions to exceed this and cross INR 2,800 crores.
→Growth is expected in both two-wheeler and passenger vehicle segments.
→Export markets are expected to improve further, especially if geopolitical issues like the Russia-Ukraine war resolve.
→New orders, including around 53% from EV and hybrid segments, provide strong growth potential.
→The company is optimistic about doubling EV order volumes as component availability improves.
→Over 3-5 years, the company expects significant growth, potentially aiming to become a INR 5,000 crore revenue company before 5 years.

Category 3

→The company expects to maintain or improve EBITDA and PBT levels going forward, with plans already in place to show better results in upcoming quarters.
→Margins for FY24 are targeted to be at least at Q4 FY23 levels, with management indicating potential for quarter-on-quarter margin improvement.
→EBITDA for FY24 is expected to be around INR 300 crores plus, supporting significant free cash flow and enabling debt reduction.
→Net profit is anticipated to reach around INR 100 crores in the coming year, maintaining or improving margins from Q4 FY23.
→Revenue growth guidance for FY24 is around 15%-16%, with domestic and export markets contributing similarly in percentage terms.
→The company aims to achieve sustained growth driven by exports and domestic market expansion in two-wheeler and passenger vehicle segments.
→Long term, there is optimism about achieving a INR 5,000 crores revenue company within 5 years, leveraging India's large population and EV market growth.

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→Currently, there is no plan for new fundraising through debt or equity. (Page 19)
→The company is focusing on reducing existing debt and expects debt levels to come down starting the end of the current year. (Pages 9, 12, 17)
→The capex for the next fiscal year is expected to be around INR 50-55 crores, significantly lower than the previous year, reducing the need for incremental funding. (Pages 9, 11, 17)
→Management is actively seeking a large single investor for funding but prefers not to break up the amount. Discussions are ongoing with potential investors. (Page 7)
→No new loans are currently planned except for one small LC of about INR 11-12 crores. (Page 17)

Yes

→Current confirmed order book peak program value: INR 1,900 crores per year (Page 6).
→Of this, 53% of orders are for EVs, and the balance for IC engines, including wheels for motorcycles (Page 6).
→Incremental new orders added in the last quarter: INR 300 crores (Page 6).
→One significant BMW order secured with potential peak production value of almost INR 100 crores annually; other BMW orders are still pending (Page 19).
→Defense orders are pending due to a lengthy tender and trial process; one order is already won, but others await retendering and approvals, with expected announcements in the coming quarters (Pages 13,15,19).
→Total targeted sales for next year around INR 2,700 to 2,800 crores, indicating visible order inflows supporting 15-16% growth (Pages 6, 20).

Yes

→FY '23 capex was around INR 200 crores, primarily due to the Toyota project capitalization and merging of subsidiaries (p16-17).
→FY '24 capex guidance is approximately INR 55 crores excluding dies; including dies, total capex expected is around INR 90-95 crores (p11, 14).
→Dies investment (INR 35-40 crores) is regular for machine running; amortized and sometimes advances received from customers like Toyota and Renault (p11-14).
→One new die-casting machine specific to AISIN project is arriving (p17).
→No immediate large-scale investments planned; capex in FY '24 expected to be below depreciation (INR 110 crores) (p9-14).
→Long-term land acquisition and possible plant shift in Gurgaon is under discussion but will take ~1.5 years (p9).
→Future investment will start on receipt of confirmed orders, especially in defense and export segments (p15-16).
→Overall, capex to be conservative and aligned with production and order inflows (p15-17).

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