Samhi Hotels Q3 FY26 Earnings Analysis

- SAMHI expects same-store total revenue growth of 9% to 11% CAGR over the next 3 to 5 years, driven largely by repricing. - The upscale segment share is projected to increase to 60% of revenue from the current 4%, substantially impacting revenue growth. - RevPAR (Revenue Per Available Room) is conservatively assumed to remain flat till 2030, but management anticipates a 5-6% annual growth, indicating potential upside. - New inventory additions, such as ballroom renovations and hotel expansions, especially in Q4, are expected to be absorbed quickly due to strong demand. - Long term structural growth is supported by urbanization, airport developments (Navi Mumbai airport with 100+ million passengers), and increasing disposable incomes. - The company aims for a 17%-18% CAGR in top-line revenue over the next 3-5 years factoring hotel rebranding and renovations. - Navi Mumbai’s large development (700-room project) is expected to redefine SAMHI’s growth over the next decade.

- Guidance assumes RevPAR remains flat from 2025 to 2030 but company expects 5-6% annual RevPAR growth, implying potential upside. (Page 24) - Company targets 9%-11% CAGR total revenue growth for same-store hotels over 3-5 years, driven mainly by repricing and rate growth. (Page 11) - With hotels due for rebranding and renovation, above-average revenue growth of 17%-18% CAGR expected for next 3-5 years for the company, even before Navi Mumbai project. (Page 11) - EBITDA from Navi Mumbai asset guided at INR 180-185 crores, assuming current RevPAR level. (Page 24) - EBITDA expected to grow exponentially post-FY27 as newly opened hotels stabilize. (Page 22) - Profit after tax reported INR 100 crores in Q2 FY26, up from INR 13 crores previous year, reflecting momentum. (Page 5) - Balance sheet strength and free cash flows support funding future growth without leverage concerns. (Pages 6, 22)

- Total cumulative capex for SAMHI estimated at INR 1,500 crores, including INR 1,100 crores before Navi Mumbai and about INR 650 crores for Navi Mumbai Phase 1. - Navi Mumbai Phase 1 development entails 400 rooms with capex of INR 650 crores over 3-4 years (~INR 1.65-1.7 crores per key), well below replacement cost in Mumbai. - A 260-room mid-scale variable lease hotel in Hyderabad Financial District is being developed with minimal upfront capital, fitting the capital-efficient growth model. - W Hyderabad (170-room luxury hotel in HITEC City) is on track for December 2026 opening, expected to boost ARR and same-store growth. - INR 75-80 crores extension premium and INR 100-150 crores FSI premium payable for Navi Mumbai land deal with MIDC. - About INR 350 crores free cash on hand invested in Tribute Bangalore, W Hyderabad, and new hotel openings. - Guidance to maintain net debt to EBITDA around 2.9-3x short term, moving to 2.5x midterm, leveraging investable surplus to fund capex without balance sheet stress.

- No immediate new fundraising through debt or equity is planned. - Capital expenditures for growth projects (Navi Mumbai INR 650 crores over 4 years, Hyderabad over ~3.5 years) will be funded primarily through operating free cash flow and investable surplus (~INR 1,700 crores). - Current leverage is around 3x net debt-to-EBITDA, with a target to reduce to ~2.5x in the medium term. - Refinancing is underway for about INR 350 crores of debt, expected to reduce interest rates from 8.4% to 7.9%. - Incremental property transfers to the GIC joint venture platform will depend on value creation, not to solve leverage issues. - The company feels comfortable managing existing and upcoming projects without additional fundraising due to ample free cash generation.

- The company expects to see a strong order book growth driven by new inventory and renovations in H2 FY26. - Ballroom renovations and new inventory launches across multiple hotels (Sheraton Hyderabad, Hyatt Place Gurgaon, Kolkata, Greater Noida, Bangalore) will start contributing significantly from Q4 FY26. - New inventory absorption is expected to be quick given strong demand, especially in the quarter 4 period. - The Navi Mumbai development represents a major investment with a total capex of approximately INR 1,500 crores in phases. - The Navi Mumbai asset alone is anticipated to generate EBITDA of around INR 180-185 crores, assuming RevPAR remains flat from 2025 to 2030. - The company has a pipeline largely consisting of variable leases which offer lower cost per key and strong growth opportunities. - Overall, supply additions and renovations across markets indicate a robust pipeline for the coming years.