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GFL LtdQ1 FY18

GFL Ltd

Q1 FY18 Earnings Call Analysis

Management growth scorecard

Revenue

Category 2

Margin

Category 1

Fundraise

N/A

Order

N/A

Capex

Yes

2 of 3 growth signals are positive.

Full analysis

Revenue guidance

Category 2
  • →PTFE segment expected to grow by 25-30% next year with new TFE and PTFE capacity commissioning by Sept-Oct 2018, plus ongoing debottlenecking.
  • →Other fluoropolymers (PFA, FEP, PVDF, FKM, Micro Powders) anticipated to ramp up continuously and reach full capacity by December 2019.
  • →Specialized Fluorochemicals and Specialty Polymers investments (approx. Rs 450 crores CAPEX) expected to generate Rs 800-1000 crores revenue once commissioned by end of 2018.
  • →Indian demand for PTFE growing robustly (~20-25%), driven by infrastructure growth and higher performance polymer requirements.
  • →Chloromethane and Caustic Chlorine segments currently at full capacity with limited growth expected in near term.
  • →Overall chemical business revenues and value-added product segments projected to increase significantly in coming quarters.

Margin guidance

Category 1
  • →Specialty polymers and fluorochemicals expected to significantly improve profitability due to higher margin profiles compared to current products.
  • →New TFE and PTFE plant capacities to be commissioned by September-October 2018, leading to ~30% increase in PTFE capacity and ~25-30% growth in PTFE segment.
  • →Continued growth anticipated in fluoropolymer value-added products like PFA, FEP, PVDF, FKM, and micro powders with full capacity utilization targeted by December 2019.
  • →Revenue potential from capital work-in-progress (Rs 343 crores plus Rs 100 crores additional capex) estimated to generate Rs 800-1000 crores in top line.
  • →Improved contribution margins expected as specialty polymers increase in sales mix.
  • →Anti-dumping duties in US expected to positively impact business by reducing competition from Chinese suppliers.
  • →Overall, earnings and operating profits expected to show healthy growth starting FY19 and beyond driven by capacity expansion and product mix shift.

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Fundraise plans

- No explicit mention of any new fundraising through debt or equity in the call. - Current gross debt reported around Rs 2,300 crores (consolidated), with treasury/cash of Rs 900 crores; net debt approximately Rs 1,400 crores on consolidated basis. - Standalone net debt is minimal, around Rs 23 crores. - Management indicated capital expenditure (CAPEX) going forward would be under Rs 100 crores, mostly to complete ongoing projects. - Existing significant CAPEX already incurred and reflected as capital work-in-progress. - No discussion of plans to raise fresh capital via debt or equity during the quarter or upcoming financial year. - Promoters have already complied with public shareholding requirements; no overhang expected from any promoter stake sales. Overall, Gujarat Fluorochemicals Limited appears to be self-financing its growth and CAPEX, without immediate plans for new fundraising.

Order book

The transcript does not explicitly mention the current or expected orderbook or pending orders for Gujarat Fluorochemicals Limited. However, some relevant points indicating demand and capacity utilization include: - PTFE demand is robust globally and in India, with growth around 20-25% expected in India. - New TFE and PTFE capacities (about 30% increase) are expected to be operational by September-October 2018. - The company is running PTFE plants at full capacity currently and will add capacity leading to higher production. - In the chemical business, robust demand supports healthy margin profiles and revenue growth. - Growth in specialty fluoropolymers and value-added products is anticipated, with full capacities expected by December 2019. No specific orderbook or pending order values are disclosed in the conversation.

Capex plans

Yes
  • →Gujarat Fluorochemicals has ongoing capital work-in-progress (CWIP) of about Rs 350 crores as of March 31, 2018.
  • →Total CAPEX including CWIP and additional investments expected to be around Rs 450 crores.
  • →Projected revenue potential from this investment is around Rs 800 to Rs 1000 crores.
  • →New speciality fluorochemicals and polymer plants expected to be commissioned by end of calendar year 2018, contributing to revenue from last quarter of FY18.
  • →Additional investments of about Rs 100 crores expected for FY19-20 to complete ongoing projects.
  • →Additional TFE and PTFE plant capacities to come on stream by September-October 2018, increasing PTFE capacity by around 30% to 1800 tons/month.
  • →No large new CAPEX announced beyond completion of current projects; future CAPEX expected to be less than Rs 100 crores as most investment is already incurred.

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