Ramkrishna Forgings LtdQ3 FY25
Ramkrishna Forgings Ltd Q3 FY25 Earnings Call Analysis
Revenue, margin, capex, fundraise and order book outlook from management commentary.
Price: ₹572P/E: 128.9Market Cap: ₹10.4K CrSector: Auto Components
Management growth scorecard
Revenue
Category 3
Margin
Category 2
Fundraise
Yes
Order
Yes
Capex
Yes
3 of 5 growth signals are positive.
Full analysisRevenue guidance
Category 3- →Railway wheels JV expected to reach 80-85% utilization by FY '28, generating revenue of Rs. 1,600-1,700 crore with 17-18% EBITDA margins.
- →FY '27 utilization for railway wheels JV targeted at around 30% (~40,000 wheels).
- →Current capacity peak utilization aimed for 85%, with revenue potential between Rs. 6,200-6,500 crore by end of CY '27, subject to commodity pricing.
- →Blended EBITDA margins expected to stabilize at 17-18% with the current casting-forging mix; aspirational goal to surpass 20% margins over time.
- →Order book of Rs. 6,000-7,000 crore anticipated to generate Rs. 1,000 crore+ revenue annually starting FY '28.
- →Domestic market expected to grow sharply post-GST cut, supporting better than market growth.
- →Export sales expected to recover with new customer wins in North America and Europe from FY '27 onwards.
- →New production trials for railway wheels to start Jan '26; commercial production from March '26.
Margin guidance
Category 2- →The company aims for a revenue of Rs. 1,600-1,700 crore from the railway wheels JV by FY '28 with EBITDA margins of 17%-18%.
- →Peak utilization for FY '28 at 80%-85% is expected, while FY '27 utilization is targeted at around 30%.
- →With current capacities and order wins, revenue could reach Rs. 6,200-6,500 crore by end of CY '27, depending on commodity prices.
- →Margins on a blended basis (casting + forging) are expected to be 17%-18%, improving from recent lows, but full return to 20%+ margins is projected in a few quarters or by next year.
- →The large order book (~Rs. 6,000-7,000 crore), especially from Europe and North America, is expected to drive revenues starting FY '27, with full ramp-up by FY '28.
- →Debt reduction of Rs. 500-600 crore by March '26 and rising utilization emphasize improving profitability.
- →Management expects surprising upside in Q3 and Q4 EBITDA margins as the business stabilizes post disruptions.
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Fundraise plans
Yes- →The company has allotted 9,75,000 Warrants to the promoter entity with a partial upfront payment of Rs. 51.19 crores; the balance will be paid before March '26.
- →The Board approved issuing 34,00,000 Warrants at Rs. 588 per share, raising additional funds.
- →Promoters have pledged shares worth Rs. 200 crores with Tata Capital to fill up the warrants; no pledging to Jio Finance.
- →Promoter is expected to infuse Rs. 150 crores.
- →Debt level increased to over Rs. 2,500 crores due to capex and muted profits; expected to reduce by Rs. 500-600 crores by March '26 with improved operating leverage and promoter infusion.
- →No indications of fresh major debt raising; focus is on utilizing current capacity and managing financials through promoter infusion and controlled capex.
Order book
Yes- →Over the last 6 quarters, Ramkrishna Forgings has received new orders totaling approximately Rs. 6,000 to Rs. 7,000 crores, with a program life of 4 to 5 years.
- →These orders include Rs. 1,116 crores from Q2 FY'26 alone, excluding railway orders.
- →Of the Q2 FY'26 order wins, 69% came from automotive (Rs. 777 crores), 27% from railways (Rs. 296 crores), and 4% from non-auto sectors (Rs. 43 crores).
- →Orders from Europe and North America constitute significant order wins, reflecting a diversification strategy.
- →Orders are expected to start generating revenues from FY'27 onwards, reaching full production by FY'28.
- →Revenue from these orders in FY'28 is estimated safely above Rs. 1,000 crores.
- →Railway segment orders include Rs. 200 crores for castings and additional orders for fully assembled bogey frames.
- →The railway wheels JV expects to produce around 40,000 wheels in FY'27 (about 30% utilization), ramping up to 80-85% utilization by FY'28, with estimated revenues of Rs. 1,600 to Rs. 1,700 crores.
Capex plans
Yes- →Capex for next year (FY '27) will be negligible, less than Rs. 100 crores.
- →Current expansion includes approximately 400,000 tonnes of capacity between forgings and castings.
- →Casting facility with 45,000 tonnes capacity is almost fully sold out and expected to have 80-85% utilization next year.
- →Trial runs for the railway wheels JV to start in January '26, with commercial production beginning in March '26.
- →No additional equipment imports or capex planned for standalone operations as current capex is complete.
- →The company is focused on optimizing capacity utilization and scaling up railway and domestic market demands.
- →Promoter infusing Rs. 150 crores and expected Rs. 600 crores debt reduction by March '26 indicating strategic financial management alongside capex completion.
How does Ramkrishna Forgings Ltd rank vs peers in Auto Components?
Pro feature1Ramkrishna Forgings Ltd
Rev 3Mar 2
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