Adani Green Energy Ltd Q4 FY26 Earnings Analysis

- Capex for next year expected between INR 35,000 to 40,000 crores to support capacity expansion towards 50 GW by FY30. - Run rate EBITDA projected at about INR 17,000 crores by end of FY26 (including INR 1,000 crores other income), with power supply EBITDA around INR 16,000 crores. - Revenue expected in the range of INR 17,000 to 18,000 crores for next year, reflecting growth despite current curtailment and grid availability challenges. - Expansion plans include significant deployment of battery storage: 3.5 GWh capacity commissioning this year with plans to more than double next year. - Expected grid augmentation and battery storage deployment to mitigate curtailment, improving generation and revenue realization going forward. - Strategy includes maintaining ~20% merchant capacity, utilizing infirm power, and monetizing flexibility through battery storage to capture peak pricing opportunities.

- Adani Green Energy projects a run-rate EBITDA of approximately INR 17,000 crores for FY 2026, including other income of about INR 1,000 crores. - The run-rate EBITDA from power supply alone is expected around INR 16,000 crores. - Revenue for FY 2026 is anticipated to be in the range of INR 18,000 to 19,000 crores, with next year's revenue estimated between INR 17,000 to 18,000 crores. - Capex for the next year is expected between INR 35,000 to 40,000 crores, supporting growth towards the 50 GW capacity target by 2030. - Expansion and operational scale, especially with battery storage and grid augmentations, are expected to enhance profitability and provide stable earnings growth. - EBITDA margins remain industry-leading at around 91.5%, and cost efficiency is projected to improve with scale.

- Planned capex for next year is approximately INR 35,000 crores to INR 40,000 crores. - Aim to grow capacity to 50 gigawatts by FY 2030. - Battery storage investment is strategic; committed to commissioning 3.5 GWh battery storage this financial year with plans to more than double it next year. - Investment in pumped storage projects is underway, including the Chitravathi project expected this calendar year. - The company is expanding at large scale locations like Khavda, including co-location of solar and battery storage to optimize cost and returns. - Debt raising is ongoing to support under-construction projects and capital expenditure needs for the next 9 months to 1 year. - The company leverages internal manufacturing capabilities (solar modules, wind turbines) to mitigate raw material cost risks.

- Adani Green Energy is continuously engaged in debt raising due to ongoing projects under construction. - A significant portion of debt required for the next 9 months to 1 year is already sanctioned. - Debt raising is planned to support capex requirements, which are estimated at INR 35,000 to 40,000 crores for the coming year. - There is no specific mention of new fundraising through equity in the current transcript. - The company aims to maintain debt levels in line with capacity expansion up to 50 GW over the next 2-3 years, keeping debt-to-EBITDA ratios stable. - Debt sanctioning is proactive to meet financing needs for upcoming project phases. (Source: Pages 14, 12)

The transcript does not explicitly mention the current or expected order book or pending orders for Adani Green Energy Limited. However, some relevant insights related to project backlog and bidding are: - There is a backlog of 42 GW of Letters of Award (LOAs) that have not yet been translated into Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) and Power Sale Agreements (PSAs). - Exposure to potential cancellations of solar PPAs from this 40 GW is very small for Adani Green. - Tendering activity in the renewables sector has slowed compared to the past two years due to the backlog and grid constraints. - Future tenders may shift towards round-the-clock (RTC) and peak power tenders rather than pure solar tenders. - The company is focused on large-scale expansion and expects grid augmentation to enable ~10 GW additional capacity next year. - Capex guidance for FY27 is INR 35,000-40,000 crore with a targeted capacity growth towards 50 GW by FY30. No specific numeric order book figure is provided in the available pages.