Genus Power Q3 FY26 Earnings Analysis

- Revenue guidance for FY26 is INR 4,500 crores, up from earlier INR 4,000 crores guidance. - For FY27, revenue is expected to be INR 5,500-6,000 crores. - EBITDA margin targeted at 20% for both FY26 and FY27. - Installation guidance updated to over 80 lakh meters in FY26, up from previous 75 lakh meters forecast. - For next year (FY27), meter installations expected to cross 1 crore units. - Company confident of maintaining ~25% market share in upcoming meter tenders. - Large tender pipelines: Tamil Nadu (3.05 crore meters), Delhi (50 lakh meters), Punjab (26 lakh meters). - Total smart meter market size under RDSS expected to grow to ~30-31 crore meters by 2031-32. - Beyond RDSS, growth expected from replacement business, new connections, O&M services, and expansion into exports, water meters, and gas meters in 2-3 years.

- Revenue guidance for FY26 is revised upwards to INR 4,500 crores from INR 4,000 crores earlier, with an EBITDA margin of 20%. - For FY27, revenue is expected between INR 5,500 to 6,000 crores, maintaining an EBITDA margin of 20%. - Consistent strong growth is reflected, with Q2 FY26 standalone revenue at INR 1,149 crores, a 136% YoY increase. - EBITDA for Q2 FY26 tripled YoY to INR 244 crores with improved margins (21.3%). - PAT for Q2 FY26 rose 162% YoY to INR 148 crores, with a PAT margin of 12.9%. - The management projects excellent performance and clear revenue and margin visibility for the next five years. - Cash flow positivity is expected by FY27 due to improved working capital cycles and scaling operations. - Long-term growth also envisaged from new meter segments (water, gas, export), besides electricity meters.

- The company has committed a joint venture investment of $210 million (approx. INR 1,100 crores), which is lower than the earlier estimate of INR 1,600-1,700 crores due to better cash flows and execution cycle. - Expected additional investment of INR 700-800 crores in the joint venture platform over the next 3 years (FY26-FY28), bringing total investment to INR 1,000-1,100 crores. - Setting up a new injection molding plant in Kotputli, Rajasthan, with plans to install 40 machines in the first phase, expected operational by end of FY26, aimed at supplementing capacity for plastic molding components for meters. - Current manufacturing capacity is sufficient, but the company can add more shifts if needed for ramp-up. - No plans to exceed INR 1,100 crores investment in the joint venture platform.

- As of September 30, 2025, Genus Power Infrastructures Ltd had a gross debt of INR 1,744 crores, about INR 400 crores higher than March 31, 2025. - The increase in debt is mainly from short-term loans. - Peak borrowing is expected to reach INR 2,000 to 2,100 crores. - Debt is anticipated to start reducing from mid-FY28 onwards. - The company has cash and equivalents of approximately INR 600 crores. - Investment plans include INR 700-800 crores in the joint venture platform over FY26-28, totaling about INR 1,000-1,100 crores. - There is no explicit mention of new fundraising through debt or equity; debt levels will rise moderately to support growth but are planned not to exceed INR 2,100 crores. - Cash flow positive status expected by FY27, possibly reducing reliance on external funding thereafter.

- As of September 30, 2025, Genus Power has a total order book (net of taxes) of INR 28,758 crores for about 3.6 crore meters. - Out of the total meter requirement of approx. 30-31 crore meters under the RDSS scheme, 15 crore smart meters have been awarded; 15 crore meters are yet to be finalized. - Currently, 3 live tenders are underway: Tamil Nadu (3.05 crore meters), Delhi BSES (~50 lakh meters), and Punjab (26 lakh meters), totaling around 4 crore meters. - Another 6-6.5 crore meters tenders are expected to be finalized in the next 12-18 months. - Large states like Karnataka and Telangana have not yet started their RDSS drives but expected to contribute in 1-2 years. - The company is confident of maintaining its current run rate for order inflows and maintaining around 25% market share in upcoming tenders.